Dogecoin (DOGE) underwent notable turbulence over the past week, with the popular meme coin dropping more than 11% amid broader market volatility.
While the short-term losses raised concerns among retail traders, technical analysis and blockchain activity suggest DOGE may be setting up for a much larger move.
DOGE price analysis
In recent days, Dogecoin slipped from a local high near $0.25 to hover around $0.2161, reflecting a sharp pullback after a sustained rally earlier this month.
Despite the obvious weakness, this decline has not invalidated the broader bullish structure that analysts have tracked for months.
On the four-hour chart, DOGE is trading inside a defined descending wedge—a formation commonly viewed as bullish if confirmed by a breakout.
Highlighting this setup, one analyst on X noted that Dogecoin’s price has been compressed between a falling resistance near $0.219 and support just above $0.212, forming a tightening range.
4h $DOGE FW pic.twitter.com/aBCf1y5jaO
— #333kByJuly2025 (@CarpeNoctom) May 17, 2025
Technical overlays such as the Ichimoku Cloud show price resting in a balance zone, indicating the current pause could precede a larger directional move.
The confluence support between $0.212 and $0.214, reinforced by the Ichimoku Span B, has produced intraday rebounds and suggests buyers remain interested at those levels.
Meanwhile, resistance at the wedge’s upper boundary aligns with the Kijun-sen (baseline) around $0.225, creating a clear ceiling that must be breached for bullish momentum to continue.
Dogecoin price outlook
If Dogecoin manages a decisive four-hour candle close above $0.219, analyst Ali Martinez believes the coin could quickly target the prior supply zone between $0.24 and $0.26.
This is a major area of resistance for #Dogecoin $DOGE. A breakout here could spark a new bull run!
Don’t wait for the breakout; instead, prepare for it! Go to @coinexcom, sign up using my referral link https://t.co/73n8mW9Y5p, and join me in this trade. pic.twitter.com/yh52WFBHQt
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 15, 2025
On the downside, a break below support at $0.205 would likely open the door to a steeper correction, possibly revisiting the April pivot low near $0.185.
From a medium-term perspective, the weekly Dogecoin chart paints a more optimistic picture, as the token recently closed above the Bull Market Support Band.
This band—defined by the 20-week simple moving average and a two-sigma envelope—has acted as a key barrier since early February, and recent price action has flipped it into support.
Analyst Cantonese Cat emphasized the significance of this move, noting that a second consecutive weekly close above $0.22378 would confirm a broader trend reversal.
Despite the pullback from $0.25, the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which overlaps the Bull Market Support Band, remains a major pivot for continued bullish follow-through.
Adding further weight to this outlook, long-term chart patterns indicate Dogecoin completed a breakout above a multi-year falling resistance line at the end of 2023.
According to analyst Javon Marks, that structural change—marked by higher highs and higher lows—supports a bullish reversal from the extended bear market that followed the 2021 peak.
$DOGE and a +174% climb to its first target at $0.6533 continues to be in the cards 🃏… https://t.co/7Jt82s0jLy
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) May 18, 2025
Marks also pointed out that the recent correction found support around $0.16, establishing a higher low that strengthens the case for a sustained uptrend.
Based on these developments, Marks maintains a projected price target of $0.6533, implying roughly 174% upside from current levels.
He additionally noted that DOGE could eventually retest its previous all-time high near $0.74 and even extend toward $1.25 if momentum builds and market sentiment improves.
However, another resistance layer remains between $0.25 and $0.26—a zone that has consistently capped Dogecoin since December 2024, according to Ali Martinez.
Repeated failures to break this area earlier in the year underscore the importance of a confirmed move above it for any sustainable upward push.
While the near-term technical outlook is mixed, on-chain Dogecoin data adds another bullish signal to the overall picture.
Blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock reported surges in user engagement: new addresses jumped more than 102% and active addresses increased over 111% within a single week.
Additionally, zero-balance addresses—often associated with increased turnover and new activity—rose more than 155%, reflecting fresh interest from traders and retail users.
This resurgence in network activity has coincided with a broader market rally and suggests the recent price pullback may not reflect weakening fundamentals.
If price breaks above the resistance zones at $0.219 and $0.26, it could trigger the next major rally toward the bullish targets near $0.65 outlined by analysts.
Until then, both traders and long-term holders will closely monitor key support and resistance levels, waiting for confirmation of Dogecoin’s next significant move.