- JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold, sets a year-end target of $165,000.
- An influx into Bitcoin ETFs shows retail investors are driving a “de-risking” trade.
- Rising gold prices make Bitcoin more attractive, JPMorgan analysts say.
Bitcoin could climb to $165,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at JPMorgan, who argue the cryptocurrency remains undervalued versus gold when adjusted for relative volatility.
The projection comes as Bitcoin trades near $119,000, supported by growing investor demand for alternative stores of value amid global economic and political uncertainty.
Bitcoin valuation versus gold
In a report released Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the ratio of Bitcoin’s volatility to gold’s volatility has fallen below 2.0, implying Bitcoin currently consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
Based on that metric, they estimate Bitcoin’s market capitalization of $2.3 trillion would need to rise roughly 42%—implying a price near $165,000—to match $6 trillion privately invested in gold through ETFs, bars and coins.
The analysis marks a notable shift from late 2024, when JPMorgan calculated Bitcoin was overvalued relative to gold by $36,000. The bank now suggests Bitcoin is undervalued by about $46,000.
“This mechanical exercise could therefore imply material upside for Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
The latest outlook updates an August forecast in which the bank expected Bitcoin to reach $126,000 by year-end.
Since then, rising gold prices have improved Bitcoin’s relative appeal, prompting JPMorgan to raise its implied target.
The rise of a “de-risking trade”
JPMorgan frames the bullish case within a broader trend it calls the “de-risking trade,” a growing movement of investors seeking protection from inflation, government deficits, geopolitical risks and declining confidence in fiat currencies.
Both Bitcoin and gold have benefited from that trend, with inflows to ETFs tracking the two assets accelerating markedly over the past year.
The report says retail investors have been the primary driver of that surge, particularly into Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into spot Bitcoin funds accelerated in the first half of 2025 and eased somewhat in August. Gold ETFs, meanwhile, started to attract stronger demand, narrowing the cumulative inflow gap between the two asset classes.
The analysts noted that while institutional participants engaged via CME futures, futures positions were weaker relative to ETF inflows, underscoring the retail-led nature of the de-risking trade.
A growing bullish consensus
JPMorgan’s potential upside for Bitcoin contributes to a broader wave of bullish forecasts heading into the final quarter of the year.
Several other analysts and firms have predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000, highlighting increased optimism around the asset.
With Bitcoin trading near $119,000, there remains room for significant gains if JPMorgan’s $165,000 target is realized.
The upward revision reflects both the relative valuation dynamics with gold and the wider macro environment that is fueling demand for nontraditional stores of value.
Whether Bitcoin reaches JPMorgan’s implied valuation will depend on the persistence of investor appetite for the de-risking trade and Bitcoin’s ability to compete with gold for capital allocation.
For now, the report underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role alongside precious metals as a key hedge against economic and political risks.