- CMF stands at about 0.15, indicating a tentative inflow of bullish capital.
- On July 11, 220 million XRP flowed into exchanges, but inflows have slowed since then.
- An ascending triangle pattern suggests a potential breakout above $3.24.
The XRP price, after reaching a monthly high of $3.65 in early July, has traded inside a narrow range. It subsequently dropped nearly 14% to around $3.09 and has since seen a modest weekly gain of roughly 5%.
Nevertheless, market indicators and on-chain data now point to possible accumulation and a potential reversal. Large wallets show signs of quiet accumulation while exchange inflows remain subdued.
That combination creates an environment where even moderate buying pressure, given the right conditions, could trigger a breakout.
CMF suggests hidden demand is increasing below $3.24
Between July 20 and 26, while XRP fell from $3.60 to $3.09, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator posted higher lows. This bullish divergence suggests institutions and large holders have been steadily accumulating during the pullback.
CMF currently hovers around 0.15. For a more convincing uptrend, the indicator needs to climb further, surpass the prior high, and confirm a stronger surge of positive capital flow.
Unlike trend-following tools, CMF measures momentum using both price and volume. The present reading suggests inflows are marginally outpacing outflows, but the signal remains tentative and not yet strong enough to confirm a breakout.
A decisive shift above 0.20 on the CMF could serve as a key signal for more aggressive upside momentum toward the recent high of $3.65.
Exchange inflows remain low after a July 11 surge
On-chain metrics show diminished activity on centralized exchanges, which supports the idea of reduced short-term selling pressure.
After a single large spike on July 11 that deposited more than 220 million XRP into trading platforms, subsequent inflows have stayed muted.
By July 29, even with the price around $3.12, daily exchange inflows had shrunk to just 9.7 million XRP.
Low exchange inflows typically indicate that large holders are not preparing to sell, effectively removing available supply from the market and potentially amplifying future demand.
Combined with the rising CMF, this trend points to a possible supply-demand shift that favors buyers.
Price chart reveals an ascending triangle near a key support zone
The two-day XRP chart shows an ascending triangle forming just below the $3.24 resistance line. This bullish pattern, characterized by rising lows against a flat top, signals accumulation pressure.
The structure suggests traders are increasingly willing to buy dips, and a convincing break above resistance would raise the odds of an upside breakout.
Fibonacci levels indicate near-term support between $2.95 and $2.99. If XRP holds this zone and clears $3.24, the next potential target is the recent high at $3.65.
A successful breakout above $3.65 would likely push the asset into a price-discovery phase with limited historical resistance.
Conversely, a drop below the $2.95–$2.99 support range would invalidate the bullish outlook and require a reassessment of the market structure.
For now, technical momentum and on-chain flows lean from neutral to slightly bullish.