- Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq can be misleading.
- Bernstein noted that between ETF holdings and corporate treasuries, almost 9% of the total Bitcoin supply is now effectively locked up.
- Chhugani said the current corporate and institutional buying momentum alone could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025.
Bitcoin may soon reach new highs as corporate accumulation and renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drive a tightening of supply, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein in a client note on Monday.
The team, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short-term price correlations between Bitcoin and other assets such as gold or the Nasdaq are often misleading. Instead, factors such as the exhaustion of retail selling, growing corporate treasury holdings and robust ETF inflows provide a clearer signal about Bitcoin’s likely trajectory.
Last week, SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex and Cantor Fitzgerald announced the launch of Twenty One Capital, a corporate Bitcoin treasury vehicle that will start with 42,000 BTC.
The venture is backed by $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether and $600 million from Bitfinex, and plans to merge with Cantor Equity Partners via a SPAC while raising an additional $585 million at close.
Bernstein compared Twenty One Capital’s strategy to that of Strategy (another large buyer), which raised $22 billion in 2024 and $8.6 billion so far in 2025 to aggressively build its Bitcoin holdings.
Where Twenty One stands out is its backing—particularly from Tether, which generated $13 billion in revenue in 2024 supported by its $148 billion USDT supply.
Corporate accumulation is becoming increasingly competitive, the analysts said: roughly 80 companies now hold about 700,000 BTC, representing approximately 3.4% of total Bitcoin supply.
ETF inflows return
Meanwhile, after a two-month pause following Bitcoin’s 31% decline from its all-time high above $109,000 on its opening day to a low near $75,000, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned positive again.
Last week saw more than $3 billion in net inflows—the largest weekly total in five months and the second-largest on record. Bitcoin was trading near $95,295 at the time of the note.
ETFs now hold more than 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply, representing roughly $110 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Of that amount, nearly 33% of ETF holdings are held by institutional investors (up from about 20% in September). Within institutional AUM, 48% is held by investment advisers and 31% by hedge funds.
Bernstein calculated that when combining ETF holdings with corporate treasuries, nearly 9% of the total Bitcoin supply is effectively locked away—an increase of sevenfold since January 2024.
Separately, a recent executive order proposed by President Trump to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could further accelerate sovereign adoption of Bitcoin.
Chhugani emphasized that while current corporate and institutional demand alone could be enough to push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025, any significant U.S. government purchase of Bitcoin is not yet priced in and could trigger a global shift in sovereign accumulation strategies.