Ethereum is trading above $2,200 as the third week of May begins. After another rejection near resistance, the asset sits toward the lower end of its range from the past two weeks. Aggressive long positions that had accumulated around the $2,400 resistance zone have been reduced, and price action points to further consolidation in the coming days.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, ETH remains above the 100-day moving average (around $2,150), which currently stands as the only clear positive indicator. The mildly ascending channel that began at the February low is still technically intact; its lower boundary is climbing toward $2,100 and will serve as a dynamic support level.
The $2,400 supply zone has rejected ETH several times without a sustained close above it. Above that horizontal resistance sits the 200-day moving average (near $2,600) and the upper boundary of the channel, which together form the next meaningful ceiling.
To rebuild a credible recovery narrative, ETH needs to stabilize above $2,400 and then reclaim the 200-day moving average. Given current momentum, those moves are not straightforward. On the downside, a daily close below $2,000 would represent major structural damage that buyers will need to prevent.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, a pink descending wedge that compressed price after the mid-April high appears to be resolving to the downside, as the lower boundary near $2,260 has been broken. The market is now trading just above the $2,200 support area that has held during recent weeks. The RSI on this timeframe sits in the 40–45 range — soft, but not yet at oversold readings that might trigger a strong bounce from this band.
The $2,200 zone is the critical level to monitor over the next several days. A successful rebound here would preserve the short-term bullish structure and set up another attempt to retake the $2,400 area. Conversely, a confirmed break below $2,200 would open the path toward the $2,000–$2,100 support range and the lower boundary of the daily ascending channel, the last significant lines of defense before potential downside toward $1,800.
Sentiment Analysis
Exchange reserves fell to a multi-year low of roughly 14.5 million ETH in late April but have since ticked back up to about 14.9 million ETH, an increase of roughly 400,000 ETH over recent days. The timing matters: the uptick in reserves began as price approached $2,400 and has continued through the pullback to current levels.
This pattern suggests that some of the ETH moving back onto exchanges comes from holders who accumulated near the February lows and are now shifting supply onto exchanges as price neared their target exit zone.
Nevertheless, the broader structural picture remains supportive. Even at 14.9 million ETH, exchange reserves are still historically low, and the multi-month trend of outflows has not reversed. Still, the subtle change from declining to slightly rising reserves exactly around the $2,400 resistance — a level that has repeatedly capped price — is not coincidental. It helps explain why that zone has been difficult to clear.
Each approach to $2,400 has drawn incremental supply from relatively low-cost holders, absorbing buying pressure before a breakout can take hold. Until reserve flows resume declining — indicating those holders have finished distributing — the supply barrier at $2,400 is likely to remain in place.