Bitcoin (BTC) has come under renewed pressure over the past week, sliding from roughly $77,000 to about $73,140. The cryptocurrency suffered several sharp downturns during this period, including a significant dip to around $72,600 on May 28.
Recent price behavior suggests the bear market may not be over, and deeper losses could occur before any sustained recovery begins.
“Stage 5 Is Coming”
In his latest weekly report, analyst Doctor Profit said the broader market structure remains unchanged and that Bitcoin is still navigating the later phases of a bear market. He describes this phase as marked by exhaustion, sideways trading, and growing frustration among participants—conditions he says are already visible in Bitcoin’s price action.
Doctor Profit believes these signals point to an approaching transition to what he calls Stage 5, which he identifies as the true capitulation phase of the cycle. He expects Stage 5 to begin if Bitcoin falls below $60,000. A break beneath that level, he warns, could accelerate panic selling and trigger a more severe decline.
The analyst cautions that the next phase could involve forced liquidations by long-term holders, the collapse of a major exchange or large market participant, or other black swan events that further erode investor confidence. He emphasizes that bear markets rarely move in a straight line; instead, they tend to be protracted, exhausting, and destructive—reasons many investors may still be underestimating downside risk.
Despite Bitcoin’s retreat from recent highs, Doctor Profit does not view the current move as the final bottom. He continues to forecast that Bitcoin could ultimately test the $40,000–$50,000 range before the bear market concludes. Based on his models, he sees September to October 2026 as the most likely period for that eventual bottom.
The analyst also highlighted several upcoming U.S. economic releases—ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment data, and nonfarm payrolls—as key events that could influence financial markets. He noted that signs of weakness in the labor market combined with persistent inflation would complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
Looking ahead to the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, Doctor Profit observed that markets appear to be pricing in a dovish stance, but he remains skeptical that such an outcome will occur.
Derivatives Market Still Struggles
The state of the Bitcoin derivatives market adds weight to a cautious outlook. Another analyst, Darkfost, pointed out that the sector has not fully recovered from the large liquidation event on October 10, when nearly 71,000 BTC were wiped from open interest across major exchanges in a single day. Although activity has improved since then, total open interest across the Bitcoin derivatives market—excluding the CME—remains below pre-liquidation levels. Roughly 351,000 BTC are currently outstanding, down from nearly 375,000 BTC before the event.
One notable exception is Binance, which has increased its open interest and market share since October. This shift could indicate that trading activity is increasingly concentrated on exchanges offering deeper liquidity and greater market depth, as traders seek venues that can better absorb large orders.
Overall, the combination of ongoing derivative market weakness, the potential for further price declines, and uncertain macroeconomic data means that investors may need to brace for more volatility. While some market participants hope for a smoother transition to recovery, analysts cited here warn that capitulation phases and forced selling can produce sudden and severe moves that reshape market structure before a sustainable bottom emerges.