- Analysts see a drop to $3,560 or upside targets up to $20,000 after Ethereum’s 15% crash on Monday.
- Institutional inflows and Fed easing, however, support longer-term bullish perspectives.
- $4,000 remains the key level as bulls and bears fight for control.
Ethereum’s price plunged in a violent sell-off on Monday, wiping out numerous leveraged long positions and rattling traders.
The token has since staged a modest rebound. CoinGecko shows ETH trading around $4,197, with a 24-hour range near $4,125 to $4,220 at the time of publication.
Crash and carnage: $1.5 billion in liquidations
On Monday, Ethereum (ETH) fell roughly 15% alongside other major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), triggering about $1.5 billion in liquidations — the largest single liquidation event in six months.
BIGGEST LIQUIDATION CASCADE EVER
OVER $1B IN LONGS WIPED OUT IN A SINGLE HOUR
THE REAL BLOODBATH 🩸 pic.twitter.com/3MPOw56O48
— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) September 22, 2025
The sudden drop forced many leveraged long positions to close and pushed ETH toward a psychologically important floor around $4,000.
That price decline occurred even as institutional demand continued.
BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF recorded roughly $512 million in inflows during the same sell-off, highlighting a disconnect between retail selling pressure and institutional accumulation.
Technical grid: $4,000 is the line in the sand
From a technical perspective, the market looks fragile. ETH recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle, a move that sets a measured downside target near $3,560 if selling persists.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted the $3,550–$3,750 area as likely support and observed that the 20-week EMA sits near $3,685.
I think that we’ll see some more chop occur on $ETH.
I don’t know whether we’ll dip as deep as $3,550-3,750, but I’m sure that we’ll start to see:
– 20-Week MA is getting closer.
– Compression is building up –> Big move to occur at a later time.It’s now down nearly 20% from… pic.twitter.com/MUvUEYY4Xv
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 23, 2025
Short-term resistance bands are now clustered roughly between $4,220 and $4,360.
Below those levels, traders are watching $4,120, $4,050 and the critical $4,000 mark.
A decisive break beneath those supports could accelerate the decline toward about $3,800.
Conversely, a clear rebound and a decisive close above the 50-day EMA near $4,250 would boost the odds of a sustained recovery.
A second concerning technical pattern is a descending triangle that formed after August’s high near $4,956.
That structure keeps $4,070 as a key pivot. If $4,070 holds, the path toward a retest of $5,000 reopens; if it fails, a slide to $3,800 becomes more likely.
Bull case: ETFs, global M2 chart and five-figure targets
On the bullish side, a number of analysts and macro studies argue today’s weakness could set the stage for aggressive gains.
Ted Pillows applied the global M2 money supply chart to Ethereum and proposed a scenario that places ETH between $18,000 and $20,000 by 2026.
Global M2 supply is now projecting $18,000-$20,000 ETH by cycle top.
Even if $ETH pulls half of that, it’ll trade above $10,000.
I’m still long-term bullish on Ethereum and think that a sweep of the $4,000 liquidity zone could happen before reversal. pic.twitter.com/w6ZZl0OuPI
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 21, 2025
Other market voices support more modest but still notable rallies.
Daan de Rover and Mark Newton of Fundstrat have highlighted a $5,500 target, with Newton adding that ETH is unlikely to fall far below $4,000.
Institutional commitments have strengthened that outlook; combined inflows from large managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have totaled hundreds of millions, a dynamic many analysts say underpins price appreciation over time.
CryptoGems and other chart-focused observers point to Wyckoff accumulation scenarios and chart setups that could push ETH toward $7,000 if a spring and re-test sequence holds.
Michaël van de Poppe also argues that compression is increasing and that pullbacks around current levels present attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term buyers.
What traders should watch
Key data points to monitor are liquidity below $4,000, ongoing ETF inflows, and whether the 50-day EMA near $4,250 is reclaimed.
Ethereum sits at a crossroads. In the short term the outlook is binary: hold above $4,000 and bulls can pursue higher targets; lose that floor and the technical setup points to a deeper correction into the mid-$3,000s.
Over the longer term, robust institutional flows, tokenization trends and easing macro conditions provide clear bullish arguments — some analysts even project five-figure outcomes over time.
Traders and investors should track liquidity, ETF flows and moving-average confirmations to determine the most likely path forward.