- Cryptocurrency markets have entered a holding pattern, with Bitcoin trading near USD 108,164.
- Traders are awaiting a key U.S. inflation report (CPI) due Friday.
- Hopes are rising for a de-escalation in the U.S.–China trade dispute.
Cryptocurrency markets entered a midweek holding pattern, with Bitcoin and other major digital assets remaining relatively stable as traders prepare for a crucial U.S. inflation report and watch for signs of easing tensions in the trade dispute between the United States and China.
Bitcoin is trading around USD 108,164, slightly higher than on Monday but still about 2% lower for the week. Ether is changing hands near USD 3,815.
That stabilization reflects what analytics firm QCP Capital described as a “narrow-range equilibrium,” a period of calm that could precede renewed volatility.
A singular focus on the U.S. inflation report
The market’s main focus is now squarely on Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the only major U.S. economic release not delayed by the ongoing government shutdown.
In a recent note, QCP said the CPI is the “single anchor” for policy expectations and broader risk sentiment.
A softer-than-expected reading, the firm argued, could “re-anchor soft-landing trades” and support Bitcoin as markets factor in the possibility of a more dovish monetary stance.
Rising hopes for U.S.–China détente
Adding to the market picture is shifting dynamics around the U.S.–China trade conflict.
Sentiment improved after a weekend of whipsaw headlines in which President Trump initially threatened a new wave of large tariffs and then softened his tone, saying that “the United States wants to help China, not harm it.”
That change prompted markets and prediction platforms to reassess odds. Polymarket traders now assign a 77% probability that a tariff deal will be reached by November 10, while the chance that the 100% tariffs once threatened by Trump will come into effect has fallen to just 16%.
A cleaner slate after a brutal liquidation episode
This fragile calm follows a brutal market-wide selloff a few days earlier that wiped out nearly USD 20 billion in leveraged positions.
That massive outflow effectively reset the market, leaving a cleaner slate for macro traders as they head into the critical CPI event.
The central question is whether the soft-landing narrative will be validated by Friday’s inflation data, or whether the volatility that has characterized recent weeks will return.
What to watch in the markets
For Bitcoin, analysts at Standard Chartered note that while sellers are limiting any immediate upside breakout, a drop below USD 100,000 could represent a “last chance to buy” before the next major upward leg.
The outlook for Ethereum is more mixed.
A recent USD 650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered a wave of profit-taking and liquidations, leaving analysts split between a potential breakout toward USD 5,000 and a possible slide to around USD 2,850 if the key support at USD 3,470 fails to hold.