Crypto analyst and trader Flood published a candid post this week arguing that the industry has slipped into an apathetic phase similar to 2019–2022 and that smart money is rotating into AI.
His message, however, is less a warning than a contrarian invitation for those willing to remain in the market.
Years of Scams Have Taken Their Toll
The current mood in crypto actually resembles those prior lows more than many want to admit, and Flood says that is precisely the point.
“Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts,” the analyst wrote. “It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created.”
That observation reflects a trend that’s been building for some time. Many firms and investors have already begun moving capital toward AI-related companies and startups. Flood does not dismiss that shift — if someone feels drawn to AI, he says they should follow that instinct. But for those who choose to stay in crypto, his assessment is stark:
“The risk-reward will be as asymmetric as it’s been in recent history.”
With less capital monitoring the space than at any point he recalls, Flood believes concentrated upside will actually make large returns easier to achieve, not harder. His argument hinges on a simple dynamic: fewer competitors chasing the same opportunities.
His comparison to 2019 and 2022 is meaningful because those years are widely regarded as some of the most difficult in recent memory, when casual participants exited and the community contracted. By his account, those were also the periods that produced much of his own returns, aside from his position in Hyperliquid.
“I almost quit crypto to go back to TradFi,” he admitted, framing the present situation as a nearly identical setup.
A Thinning Field May Be the Setup, Not the Problem
Flood’s longer-term view is straightforward: he expects Bitcoin to reprice sharply this year, and when it does, attention and capital will shift quickly back into the market.
He does not provide specific timing or price targets, but he describes the outcome as inevitable, arguing that the current environment is “new” and different from the prior cycle’s issue of too much capital chasing too few opportunities.
For builders and teams, his message is almost optimistic. Companies that continue to operate and develop during this downturn will be better positioned than those that only appear when conditions are easy.
That perspective aligns with actions taken by some prominent crypto players. For example, Michael Saylor’s Strategy added another 3,273 BTC at the start of this year’s Bitcoin conference, bringing its total to 818,344 BTC, even though the asset traded more than 30% below last year’s conference highs — a decline that critic Peter Schiff has pointed to as evidence supporting his 2025 sell call.