- Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver a 28% annual return over the next decade.
- Institutions increasingly treat Bitcoin like equities and bonds when allocating portfolios.
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries are driving growing long-term adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitwise Asset Management expects Bitcoin to produce the strongest returns of any major asset class over the next ten years, forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 28% along with gradually declining volatility.
These projections appear in a newly released memo previewing the firm’s forthcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
Institutional demand shapes the framework
The report, authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is aimed at large platforms and professional allocators who are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a core portfolio consideration.
Hougan notes this shift follows the launch and broad approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.
Long-term planning interest has grown noticeably.
Hougan says Bitwise received a dozen requests this year for long-term assumptions around Bitcoin, compared with none between 2017 and 2024.
In his view, this marks an inflection point: institutions are now evaluating Bitcoin much like they evaluate equities, bonds, and other traditional asset classes.
Favorable comparison with traditional markets
While the full report has not yet been published, the preview states that Bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility profile, and correlations are compared with established asset classes.
Bitwise describes Bitcoin’s correlation with other major assets as “low,” ranging between -0.5 and 0.5, a characteristic many portfolios value for its diversification benefits.
The asset manager’s stance on Bitcoin’s prospects draws parallels with annual capital market assumptions produced by major Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
Those outlooks help institutions determine strategic long-term allocations across equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.
Hougan argues that similar guidance is now necessary for digital assets given their growing maturity and integration into mainstream investment products.
Growing on-chain and corporate holdings
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, those funds have rapidly gained traction.
On-chain holdings associated with these ETFs have grown to nearly 7% of the fixed 21 million Bitcoin supply, with assets under management exceeding $146 billion, according to data from The Block.
Corporate treasuries have also increased their exposure.
Public companies, led by MicroStrategy with 629,376 BTC on its balance sheet, have collectively amassed Bitcoin worth more than $80 billion.
Much of these acquisitions were financed through capital markets activity, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuances.
The full Bitwise Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is expected later this week.
It will provide detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, alongside side-by-side comparisons with forecasts for traditional asset classes from leading global asset managers.
For Bitwise, the release represents an effort to place Bitcoin within the same framework that has been used for decades to evaluate traditional investments.
For institutions, it signals growing acceptance of Bitcoin not as a speculative play but as a legitimate allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.