- Bitcoin tops $115,000 and has climbed above the mid-term holders’ realized price near $114,000, boosting market sentiment.
- Short-term holders are registering losses as SOPR declines, but there are no clear signs of an “extreme greed” cycle peak yet.
- Analysts are divided: some see BTC nearing its cycle top, while others forecast $150,000 by December following a Q4 rally.
Bitcoin has continued to post gains in September, rising from roughly $108,000 at the start of the month to above $115,000.
Although this move represents a modest 4% increase over two weeks, on-chain indicators suggest the cryptocurrency may be positioning for a larger advance that could eventually challenge fresh all-time highs.
Mid-term holders’ realized price breached
According to analysis published by ShayanMarkets on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recovery from $107,000 to $114,000 has pushed the price above the realized price of mid-term holders — wallets that last moved coins within the past three to six months.
That realized price sits near $114,000.
The realized price is considered a key pivot level that often reflects market sentiment and potential selling pressure.
By climbing above this threshold, Bitcoin has reduced the immediate likelihood of selling from this holder cohort.
ShayanMarkets noted that a decisive breakout and consolidation above $114,000 could signal renewed confidence among mid-term holders.
Such a development could form the foundation of a new leg higher, capable of driving BTC toward record territory.
However, the analyst warned that failure to hold this level risks weakening sentiment and could open the door to deeper corrective moves in the near term.
Short-term holders show signs of stress
Other on-chain signals paint a more cautious picture.
CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlighted short-term holder (STH) behavior by examining the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), adjusted with a 30-day moving average.
This metric measures whether holders are selling coins at a profit or a loss.
Gaah observed that after trading above the four-month profitability threshold, the STH SOPR has slipped into negative territory, indicating that short-term holders are now realizing losses.
This shift suggests a temporary loss of confidence among speculative participants, who tend to be more sensitive to price swings.
Despite Bitcoin’s broader rise from $60,000 to $125,000 over the past year, the STH SOPR metric has shown declining peaks.
In prior cycles, sharp price advances were accompanied by SOPR readings in the “Extreme Greed” zone, reflecting heightened retail activity.
That dynamic has not appeared this time, implying that institutional participants may be the primary drivers of recent gains.
Gaah added that market tops historically strengthen when short-term holders exhibit extreme greed.
Because that has not occurred, the analyst suggested the current pullback might simply be healthy consolidation rather than a long-term trend reversal.
Mixed outlooks as year-end approaches
Market observers remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Some analysts warn the cryptocurrency could be nearing the peak of this cycle, while others expect a short-term dip in September followed by a renewed rally in Q4 2025.
Projections vary widely—some forecasts even call for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by December if the upward momentum continues.
For now, the asset trades around $115,050, up roughly 0.7% in the last 24 hours, as it attempts to establish support above key on-chain levels.
With both bullish and cautionary signals present, investors are closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to remain above the mid-term holders’ realized price, since holding that level may determine whether the rally’s next phase begins or a deeper correction unfolds.