- Bitcoin tops $115K and moves above the medium-term holders’ realized price around $114K, boosting sentiment.
- Short-term holders are showing losses as SOPR falls, but there are no signs of “extreme greed” at a cycle peak.
- Analysts are divided: some see BTC near a peak, while others target $150K by Christmas after a Q4 rally.
Bitcoin extended gains in September, rising from roughly $108,000 at the start of the month to above $115,000.
Although the move represents a modest two-week increase of about 4%, on-chain data suggest the cryptocurrency could be gearing up for another upward leg that might ultimately push it toward new all-time highs.
Medium-term holders’ realized price has been breached
According to an analysis on CryptoQuant by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recovery from $107,000 to $114,000 pushed the asset above the realized price for medium-term holders—wallets that last moved coins within the past three to six months.
That realized price is currently near $114,000.
The realized price is seen as an important pivot level that often reflects market sentiment and potential selling pressure.
By climbing above this threshold, Bitcoin has reduced the immediate likelihood of selling from that cohort.
ShayanMarkets noted that a confirmed breakout and consolidation above $114,000 could signal renewed confidence among medium-term holders.
That confidence could, in turn, set the stage for a fresh bullish phase capable of driving BTC toward record levels.
However, the analyst warned that failure to hold this level risks weakening sentiment and could open the door to deeper corrective moves in the short term.
Short-term holders are showing signs of stress
Other on-chain signals paint a more cautious picture.
CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlighted short-term holder (STH) behavior by examining the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), adjusted with a 30-day moving average.
This metric measures whether investors are selling their coins at a profit or a loss.
Gaah observed that after four months trading above break-even, the STH SOPR has slipped into negative territory, indicating that short-term holders are now realizing losses.
This shift suggests a temporary loss of confidence among speculative investors, who are more sensitive to price swings.
Despite Bitcoin’s broader rally from $60,000 to $125,000 over the past year, the STH SOPR metric has shown declining peaks.
In prior cycles, sharp price surges were accompanied by SOPR readings in the “Extreme Greed” zone, reflecting strong retail participation.
This time, however, that dynamic has not appeared, implying institutional investors may be the primary drivers behind recent gains.
Gaah added that historically market tops are often confirmed when short-term holders display extreme greed.
Because that has not occurred, the analyst suggested the current pullback could simply be healthy consolidation rather than a signal of a long-term reversal.
Mixed outlook as year-end approaches
Market observers remain split over Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Some analysts warn that the cryptocurrency could be nearing the peak of its current cycle, while others expect a brief pullback in September followed by a renewed rally in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Projections vary widely; some forecasts predict Bitcoin could reach as high as $150,000 by Christmas if bullish momentum continues.
Currently the asset trades around $115,050, up about 0.7% in the past 24 hours, as it seeks to build support above key on-chain levels.
With both bullish and cautionary signals present, investors are closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to remain above the medium-term holders’ realized price, since holding that level may determine whether the next phase of the rally begins or a deeper correction unfolds.