- BTC spot demand is rising as dense accumulation signals durable support.
- Inflows and outflows at Coinbase and Binance point to liquidity rotations that could fuel upward momentum.
- Bitcoin must clear resistance at $113,650 to confirm a breakout, otherwise it risks retesting $100,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) spot market is showing signs of a potential recovery, supported by on-chain indicators, exchange flows, and technical signals that point to strengthening buyer conviction.
Analysts believe recent developments could set the stage for a bullish breakout, though caution remains warranted given Bitcoin’s historically weak seasonality in September.
On-chain data underscores buyer conviction
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s cost-basis distribution (CBD) differs markedly from Ether (ETH).
The CBD, which tracks where large quantities of supply were accumulated or distributed, indicates that Bitcoin spot activity is far more densely clustered than ETH.
Transactions are concentrated tightly around the recent price level, suggesting buyers are accumulating with conviction.
Historically, such tight clustering around a price level for Bitcoin has provided more durable support than futures-driven momentum.
This implies the current market structure may be more resilient, with spot demand forming a foundation for potential upside.
Complementing this trend, spending by long-term holders (LTHs) has marginally accelerated in recent weeks.
The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) shows a gradual rise, indicating some profit-taking activity.
However, this activity remains within typical cycle norms and well below the October–November 2024 peaks, suggesting sales have been measured rather than aggressive.
Exchange flows signal liquidity rotation
Exchange flows further reinforce the recovery narrative.
CryptoQuant highlighted that Coinbase recorded steady net inflows between August 25 and 31, after the 30-day SMA of net inflows had hit its lowest level since early 2023.
Sharp reversals from multi-year lows have historically signaled shifts in liquidity regimes, either due to position rebalancing or preparations for increased activity.
At the same time, Binance’s 30-day SMA of net outflows rose to its highest level since July 2024, peaking on July 25 and August 25.
Those levels have previously aligned with re-accumulation phases that preceded new local highs.
The concurrent trough at Coinbase and the peak at Binance suggest a meaningful redistribution of reserves, potentially laying the groundwork for upward momentum in BTC.
Key technical breakout levels in focus
Price action supports the possibility of a recovery.
Bitcoin dropped to $107,300 on Monday, closely matching its short-term realized price, before mounting a strong rebound.
By the New York session on Tuesday, BTC had climbed above Monday’s high of $109,900, signaling renewed resilience.
On shorter timeframes—such as the 15-minute and 1-hour charts—Bitcoin registered a bullish structure break.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved back above 50, reinforcing rising upside momentum.
For the recovery to hold, Bitcoin must decisively clear resistance between $112,500 and $113,650.
A daily close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish breakout and invalidate the descending trendline that has capped price action over the past two weeks.
Such a move could unlock liquidity targets near $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
However, if BTC fails to sustain momentum above $113,650, downside risks will remain.
A failed breakout could expose the asset to declines toward the order block between $105,000 and $100,000.