Key takeaways
- BTC is trading above $109,000, down about 5% over the past seven days.
- Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has weakened after Powell said another rate cut in December is uncertain.
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is cooling
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled in recent days amid the current financial backdrop. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated earlier this week that it remains unclear whether another rate cut will occur in December.
Data from CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report show that U.S. investor appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled sharply. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, one of the weakest readings since April. At the same time, inflows into Ether have stalled over the past seven days.
The report also noted that Coinbase premiums for BTC and ETH have flattened near zero, while the CME futures basis has fallen to multi-year lows. These indicators suggest both institutional and retail traders are taking profits rather than increasing exposure.
Glassnode data show Bitcoin continues to struggle below the cost basis of short-term holders at roughly $113,000, while long-term holders are still distributing about 104,000 BTC per month.
Transfers from whale wallets to exchanges rose to $293 million per day, signaling that investors are more likely realizing gains than adding to market positions.
Bitcoin could drop to $102,000 if it closes below key support
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains bearish and price action has been weak, with a recent 24-hour decline of around 1%. The monthly candle will close in a few hours and could provide guidance on near-term market direction.
If Bitcoin continues its correction and closes a candle below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $106,453, it could extend its decline toward the October 10 low near $102,000.
The RSI at 46 sits below the neutral 50 level, indicating rising bearish momentum. MACD lines are also converging, which supports a bearish outlook.
However, if Bitcoin holds the $106,453 support level, it could consolidate over the coming hours and days and attempt to rally toward the 50-day EMA around $112,872.