- Solana (SOL) price climbed to about $122 on December 24, 2025.
- Fresh losses pushed SOL close to the critical $120 threshold.
- Falling investor confidence and macroeconomic headwinds put the altcoin at risk of further declines.
Solana extended its downturn in the final weeks of 2025, slipping below $130 and repeatedly testing the $120 area.
On Wednesday, prices dipped to these lows across major exchanges, and further weakness could see lows probe recent troughs near $116.
The $120 zone has acted as intermittent support throughout the year.
But as this decline coincides with a broader crypto market pullback amid thinner liquidity and profit-taking, SOL appears vulnerable to additional pressure.
Over the past year, Solana has underperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, falling about 38% compared with BTC’s 11% and ETH’s 16% declines.
Solana price outlook: is $100 next?
Technical analysis indicates Solana faces a pivotal moment.
Charts show increasing evidence of a bearish breakdown that could push prices toward $100 or lower in the near term.
A key concern is SOL’s position relative to its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently estimated between $160 and $165 based on recent data.
Trading well below that level signals a loss of short-term momentum and reinforces a downtrend, since the 50-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance in recent months.
Momentum indicators add further weight to the bearish case.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around the low 30s on daily and weekly timeframes, edging into oversold territory but not yet signaling a clear reversal.
In technical terms, that suggests there may be additional downside before selling exhaustion becomes evident.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows negative readings, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming waning bullish momentum and persistent selling pressure.
Chart patterns reinforce a cautious narrative.
Solana is testing a weekly neckline support near $120. A decisive break below that level could accelerate declines toward deeper support in the $90–$100 area.
What’s bullish for Solana?
Despite these headwinds, the fundamentals of the Solana ecosystem remain intact.
The network processed billions of transactions in 2025, sustaining its reputation for high throughput and low fees.
Institutional milestones — including the launch of US spot SOL ETFs and integrations with traditional financial platforms — have provided some offsetting support.
The spot Solana ETFs saw inflows on December 23, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to experience outflows.
Although volumes were modest compared with earlier in the month, cumulative net flows have climbed to more than $754 million, a positive sign for SOL.
However, if institutional appetite falters further, short-term technical indicators line up with a broader bearish trend.