- VanEck noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from equity and gold markets after the debt reduction in October.
- Justin d’Anethan said Bitcoin’s rise in a low-leverage environment shows that excessive speculation has diminished.
- Michaël van de Poppe predicted Bitcoin could reach $100,000 after a clean move above $92,000.
Global investment manager VanEck believes the first three months of 2026 could favor a risk-on environment as investors regain something markets have lacked for years: clearer direction around key policy drivers.
In a first-quarter 2026 outlook published on Tuesday, the firm highlighted improved visibility into U.S. fiscal conditions, monetary policy expectations and major investment themes.
That backdrop is normally supportive of risk assets such as AI and technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
However, VanEck said Bitcoin is sending a different message, with short-term signals harder to rely on after a break in its usual cyclical behavior.
VanEck sees clearer policy conditions at start of 2026
VanEck said markets are entering 2026 with “visibility,” describing it as a steadier phase compared with the uncertainty that dominated previous years.
The firm’s base case is that investors will face fewer shocks tied to fiscal and monetary decisions, creating an environment where riskier assets can perform with more confidence.
They added that clearer guidance on policy direction is one reason the first quarter looks attractive for risk-taking.
At the same time, VanEck emphasized that their views are medium-term in nature rather than driven by short-lived market events.
Bitcoin cycle break complicates the short-term picture
Despite expecting supportive conditions for risk assets, VanEck said Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” making traditional timing signals harder to trust.
The firm said this contributed to a more cautious stance for the next three to six months.
VanEck also noted that not everyone at the firm shares the same caution, with some managers still holding a more constructive view on Bitcoin’s immediate cycle.
The split highlights how unclear the short-term structure has become, even as the broader macro picture is easier to read.
Bitcoin decouples after October deleveraging
VanEck also pointed out that Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks and gold markets in recent months.
The move followed a large deleveraging event in October that changed how Bitcoin has traded relative to both equities and traditional safe havens.
This matters because Bitcoin’s correlation with other markets has often influenced how investors position it within a broader portfolio.
As those relationships weaken, it becomes harder to treat Bitcoin as a simple extension of risk sentiment, especially when leverage conditions change.
Analysts debate the next move as BTC tests $92,000
Crypto investor Will Clemente said the current mix of market and geopolitical conditions is close to what Bitcoin was designed for. He highlighted pressure on the Fed chair, rising demand for metals as nations diversify reserves, record-high equities and risk assets, and growing geopolitical risk.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said he expects Bitcoin to reclaim six-figure territory before the end of January.
He noted that BTC has not dipped below the 21-day moving average, where buyers have stepped in to accumulate around those levels.
He added that a decisive move above $92,000 could propel BTC to $100,000 within at most 10 days.