- JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued by $68,000 and is now more attractive than gold.
- Concerns about layoffs, weak equities and ETF outflows pushed BTC below $101,000.
- The odds of a Fed rate cut rose to 69%, but uncertainty keeps Bitcoin hovering near the key $100,000 level.
On Thursday, Bitcoin slipped below $101,000, down about 2.4%, as risk assets broadly retreated.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency tracked weakness in U.S. equity markets, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 falling amid renewed worries about the economy and the labor market.
Latest data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed more than 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest October total since 2003.
“The pace of layoffs in October was well above the monthly average for the month,” said the company’s Chief Revenue Officer, Andy Challenger.
The fresh data added to investor unease, especially after the U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of official jobs reports. Analysts said the tougher jobs picture could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates further to support the economy.
“The economy may need further Fed rate cuts,” trading research service The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, calling the current environment a “new era of monetary policy.”
However, not all market observers expect the Fed to act again in December.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital warned that a rate cut at the upcoming meeting is “not guaranteed,” noting markets still price only a 60–65% chance of further easing.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors currently assign a 69% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December.
QCP added that an extended pause in policy could keep the dollar strong and credit conditions tight—factors that typically weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Institutional outflows strain Bitcoin sentiment
Beyond macro worries, Bitcoin is also facing weaker institutional demand.
QCP Capital pointed out that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen continued outflows, totaling nearly $900 million through the first three days of this week.
The firm described the $100,000 price level as a key “psychological threshold,” suggesting that any stabilization in ETF flows could quickly shift market sentiment—provided there are no new macro shocks.
Market participants have adopted a cautious tone, with many traders eyeing a potential pullback toward a CME Bitcoin futures open “gap” near $92,000 as a possible support zone.
Despite short-term weakness, JPMorgan analysts saw a longer-term opportunity in the recent pullback.
JPMorgan says Bitcoin is now undervalued relative to gold
In a report cited by MarketWatch, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued that Bitcoin looks more attractive relative to gold after the recent correction.
The bank’s research indicated that at the end of last year Bitcoin was priced roughly $36,000 above its relative level versus gold, but is now about $68,000 below that benchmark.
The shift marks a notable change in tone from the investment bank, which has historically been more likely to view Bitcoin as a speculative asset.
The analysts said Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation could make it appealing to investors looking for alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets.
Although recent weeks of institutional outflows have dampened momentum, JPMorgan’s assessment offers a bullish counterpoint, highlighting that the cryptocurrency may have entered an oversold area versus its long-term norms.
With Bitcoin continuing to trade around the $100,000 mark, market participants will be watching whether renewed institutional interest or a dovish turn in monetary policy could reignite the crypto’s rally in the weeks ahead.