- Bitcoin volatility halves in 2025, drawing cautious institutional investors.
- Corporate treasuries now hold over 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
- JPMorgan values Bitcoin about $16,000 below gold parity, implying a potential near $126,000.
JPMorgan Chase is stirring discussion with its latest take on Bitcoin, finding the cryptocurrency significantly undervalued relative to gold.
What caught their attention? Bitcoin’s volatility has collapsed this year. Volatility fell from roughly 60% at the start of 2024 to about 30% today — levels not seen before.
The bank interprets this shift as a maturation of Bitcoin — moving from a wild, speculative asset toward something that behaves more like a serious investment.
As an asset becomes less volatile, it begins to resemble gold in its role as a place to park capital safely.
Reduced Bitcoin Volatility Sparks Institutional Interest
The report suggests this change enhances Bitcoin’s credibility, aligning it more closely with traditional assets. It strengthens Bitcoin’s role both as an investment and as a store of value in mainstream markets.
Indeed, corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Publicly listed companies are also gaining exposure by being included in equity indexes, which brings institutional capital without requiring direct crypto trading.
JPMorgan’s analysis also finds Bitcoin is undervalued by roughly $16,000 compared with gold, using models that adjust for volatility.
Their report places an implied fair-value target for Bitcoin at about $126,000.
This implies substantial upside if the market re-prices Bitcoin to reflect its improved stability and growing role among institutional investors.
Even while Bitcoin has held resiliently above $111,000, that valuation gap suggests there’s still room for appreciation as adoption widens and volatility remains lower.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
In their analysis, JPMorgan also points to a shift in market dynamics. Passive capital — money from index funds buying shares of companies that hold Bitcoin — creates steady demand.
This demand helps shield Bitcoin from being driven solely by speculative trading.
They also note the 200-day moving average has acted as strong technical support, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook even if short-term price swings occur.
However, some indicators show traders maintaining cautious hedges in options markets. That reflects short-term downside concern even as the broader trend remains constructive.