- VanEck noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets after the October deleveraging.
- Justin d’Anethan said Bitcoin’s rise in a low-leverage environment shows excess speculation has eased.
- Michaël van de Poppe predicted bitcoin could hit $100,000 after a clean move above $92,000.
Global investment manager VanEck says the first quarter of 2026 could favor a risk-on environment as investors gain something markets have lacked in recent years: clearer signals from key policy drivers.
In a Q1 2026 outlook published on Tuesday, the firm highlighted improving visibility around U.S. fiscal conditions, monetary policy expectations, and major investment themes. That combination typically supports riskier areas of the market—technology and AI stocks, for example—as well as crypto assets.
Despite the broadly supportive backdrop, VanEck cautioned that Bitcoin is sending a mixed message. Short-term signals have become less reliable after a break in the cryptocurrency’s typical cycle behavior, complicating near-term positioning.
VanEck sees clearer policy conditions for early 2026
VanEck said markets are entering 2026 with “visibility,” describing the period as more stable compared with the uncertainty that dominated previous years. The firm’s base case is that investors will face fewer fiscal and monetary shocks, creating an environment in which risk assets can perform with greater confidence.
Improved clarity around policy direction is one reason VanEck views the first quarter as attractive for risk-taking. The firm emphasized, however, that its outlook is medium-term in nature rather than a response to fleeting market events.
Bitcoin cycle break complicates the near-term picture
Even while expecting supportive conditions for risk assets, VanEck said Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” which undermines the usefulness of traditional timing signals. That disrupted cycle has prompted a more cautious stance for the next three to six months.
VanEck also noted internal disagreement: not everyone at the firm shares the same degree of caution. Some executives retain a more constructive view on Bitcoin’s immediate cycle. This split underscores how the near-term outlook for the cryptocurrency has become less clear, even as the broader macro picture appears easier to interpret.
Bitcoin decouples after October deleveraging
The firm pointed out that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from both stock and gold markets. This shift followed a major deleveraging event in October that changed how Bitcoin trades relative to equities and traditional safe-haven assets.
Correlation between Bitcoin and other markets has often influenced how investors allocate it within broader portfolios. If those relationships weaken, it becomes harder to treat Bitcoin as a simple proxy for risk sentiment—especially when leverage dynamics change.
Analysts debate the next move as BTC retests $92,000
Market commentators are divided on Bitcoin’s immediate prospects as the token retests the $92,000 area. Crypto commentator Will Clemente said recent market and geopolitical developments align closely with the original use cases Bitcoin was designed to address. He pointed to central bank pressure, rising demand for metals as nations diversify reserves, record-high equities and risk assets, and escalating geopolitical risk as supportive forces for crypto adoption.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to reclaim six figures before the end of January. He observed that the price has not dipped below the 21-day moving average, with buyers consistently accumulating around that level. Van de Poppe added that a decisive move above $92,000 could propel Bitcoin to $100,000 within as little as ten days.
Others emphasize the importance of leverage conditions and speculative excess. Justin d’Anethan has suggested that Bitcoin’s advance in a lower-leverage environment indicates that excessive speculation has eased, which could support a more sustainable advance even if short-term timing signals remain unreliable.
In sum, VanEck’s outlook frames early 2026 as a period of greater policy clarity that may favor risk assets, while also highlighting specific uncertainties around Bitcoin’s price cycle and its correlations with other markets. Analysts remain split: some see a clear path to renewed gains if key technical thresholds are cleared, while others urge caution given the broken cycle and recent structural changes in how Bitcoin trades relative to equities and safe havens.