- Spot demand for BTC is strengthening as concentrated accumulation signals resilient support.
- Coinbase and Binance flows suggest liquidity shifts are feeding upward momentum.
- Bitcoin must overcome resistance at $113,650 to confirm a breakout, or it risks retesting $100,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) spot market is showing signs of a potential rebound, supported by on-chain data, exchange flow dynamics, and technical indicators that point to growing buyer conviction.
Analysts say recent developments could form the foundation for a bullish breakout, though caution remains due to Bitcoin’s historically weak seasonality in September.
On-chain data shows buyer confidence
Glassnode data reveals the cost-basis distribution for Bitcoin (CBD) differs markedly from that of Ether (ETH).
CBD, which tracks where large volumes of supply were accumulated or distributed, indicates that spot activity in Bitcoin is noticeably more concentrated than in ETH.
Transactions are tightly clustered around recent price levels, suggesting buyers are accumulating with confidence.
Historically, such dense clustering for Bitcoin has provided more durable support than futures-driven momentum.
This suggests the current market structure may be more resilient, with spot demand forming a foundation for potential upside.
In addition to this clustering, realized spending by long-term holders (LTH) has picked up moderately in recent weeks.
The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) shows a gradual rise, pointing to measured profit-taking.
However, activity remains within normal cycle bounds and well below the peaks seen in October and November 2024, indicating selling is measured rather than aggressive.
Exchange flows point to shifting liquidity
Exchange flows further reinforce the recovery narrative.
A quick CryptoQuant review highlighted that Coinbase recorded consecutive jumps in net inflows between August 25 and 31, following a stretch when its 30-day netflow SMA hit the lowest level since early 2023.
Historically, sharp reversals from multi-year lows often signal a regime change in liquidity—either from settlement reshuffling or increased positioning ahead of higher activity.
At the same time, the 30-day netflow SMA rose to the highest levels since July 2024, peaking around July 25 and again on August 25.
Those levels previously coincided with re-accumulation phases that preceded new local highs.
The concurrent drop on Coinbase and peaks on Binance point to a significant redistribution of reserves, which could lay the groundwork for upward BTC momentum.
Key technical levels for a breakout
Price action also supports the possibility of a recovery.
Bitcoin dipped to $107,300 on Monday, closely aligning with its short-term realized price before a sharp rebound.
By Tuesday’s New York session, BTC had cleared Monday’s high of $109,900, signaling a restoration of resilience.
On shorter timeframes such as the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, Bitcoin registered a bullish structure break.
On the 4-hour chart, the relative strength index (RSI) climbed above 50, reinforcing rising bullish momentum.
For the recovery to sustain, Bitcoin must decisively clear resistance between $112,500 and $113,650.
A close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish daily breakout and negate the descending trendline that has capped price action over the past two weeks.
Such a move could unlock liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500 and potentially $119,500.
However, if BTC cannot hold momentum above $113,650, downside risks remain.
A failed breakout could push the cryptocurrency back toward the order block between $105,000 and $100,000.