TL;DR
- BTC fell about 3% over the past 24 hours and is trading near $111,200 per coin.
- The decline comes amid an ongoing tariff and trade dispute between the U.S. and China and ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks today.
BTC slips toward $111,000
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, dropped roughly 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading close to $111,200 per coin. The pullback has unfolded against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension as the U.S.-China trade conflict intensifies, prompting traders to brace for greater market volatility.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded more than $320 million in outflows on Monday, signaling increasingly cautious behavior from investors. Large redemptions from ETFs typically reflect a shift toward risk-off positioning that can add downward pressure to bitcoin prices.
Market attention is focused on a public address by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for today. Participants will be looking for any signals about the likelihood of a rate cut later this month. That said, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has reduced the flow of new economic releases, so Powell’s remarks may offer limited new information ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
On-chain data shows that a wallet known as BitcoinOG, which opened a short position ahead of last Friday’s sell-off, increased its open short exposure again today. That position now represents more than 4,394 BTC sold short in total. Two other large whales active on Hyperliquid have likewise opened sizable short positions, suggesting they anticipate further downward pressure in the near term.
Market structure points to continued caution
The BTC/USD four-hour chart remains bearish and lacks bullish momentum after the recent decline. Bitcoin staged a modest recovery on Monday, briefly reaching $115,000 following the sharp drop on Friday, but it failed to sustain that rebound and has since settled around $111,200.
Technical indicators on the 4H timeframe point to weakening momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 42, below the neutral 50 level, indicating the market is losing strength. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recorded a bearish crossover on Friday, which typically signals continued selling pressure.
If the current correction persists, Bitcoin could test the next major support level around $107,245. Conversely, if bulls regain control and buying volume returns, prices could retest resistance near $115,000. Given ETF outflows, large short positions, and macro uncertainty tied to trade tensions and Fed commentary, traders should expect heightened volatility and manage risk accordingly.
In summary, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautious. Financial and geopolitical developments—including Powell’s speech and any escalation in U.S.-China trade measures—are likely to be the primary drivers of price action in the coming sessions. Market participants should monitor ETF flows, on-chain whale behavior, and key technical levels to gauge the next directional move.