- Bitcoin recorded its first negative October performance in six years, now trading around $107,000.
- Aggressive Federal Reserve comments about a potential rate cut in December put pressure on the price.
- Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months (average return 42%).
Bitcoin enters November on uncertain footing after suffering its first negative October performance in six years, a pullback that has left investors debating whether the move was a healthy correction or the start of a deeper bear trend.
The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading near $107,000, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours.
Recent weakness culminated in a significant deleveraging event on November 3, when more than $1.16 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated, underscoring the intensity of the sell-off.
Macro headwinds produce a “red October”
The monthly decline occurred against a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve initially signaled a possible rate reduction, later comments from Chair Jerome Powell tempered market expectations for a December cut, creating uncertainty that pressured risk assets like Bitcoin.
This caution showed up in market data: Bitcoin returns during the U.S. session cooled from a positive 0.94% on October 29 to a negative 4.56% in the most recent week, according to Velo’s figures.
On a more positive note, geopolitical tensions eased following a trade agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A mid-cycle correction or the end of the bull run?
Despite the recent pullback, some market participants argue the sell-off could be a constructive development within the broader bull market.
“So could this red October set up the next major leg of Bitcoin’s growth cycle? I think that is entirely possible,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures.
Corrections like this tend to mark the middle of a broader cycle rather than its conclusion.
This optimistic view is supported by strong on-chain indicators, which suggest that long-term structural demand from holders remains robust despite short-term price volatility.
History suggests a strong November rebound is possible
Historical performance data also paint an optimistic case for the coming month. November has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, posting an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.
That trend, combined with a still-positive average return of 6.05% for the third quarter, suggests the underlying uptrend may remain intact.
“For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism,” Lin said.
Bitcoin could trade sideways in the early part of the month as markets digest Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could trigger a recovery.
The analyst adds that if Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving cycle, long-term prospects remain bright.
Citing strong fundamentals—from ETF inflows to growing institutional adoption—Lin believes a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.