- Bitcoin volatility halves in 2025, drawing cautious institutional investors.
- Corporate treasuries now hold over 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
- JPMorgan values Bitcoin about $16K below parity with gold, implying a potential target near $126K.
JPMorgan Chase is attracting attention with its latest analysis of Bitcoin, arguing the asset is substantially undervalued relative to gold.
What caught their eye? Bitcoin’s volatility has plunged this year. Volatility has dropped from roughly 60% at the start of 2024 to about 30% today, reaching historically low levels.
The bank interprets this shift as Bitcoin evolving from a wildly speculative instrument into something that behaves more like a serious investment.
When an asset becomes less volatile, it increasingly resembles gold in its ability to serve as a safe place to park capital.
Reduced volatility sparks institutional interest
The report suggests this change is lending Bitcoin greater credibility alongside traditional assets, reinforcing its role both as an investment and as a store of value in mainstream markets.
Indeed, corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
Public companies are also gaining exposure via inclusion in equity indices, which channels more capital into Bitcoin exposure without requiring direct crypto trading.
The analysis from JPMorgan further estimates Bitcoin is undervalued by roughly $16,000 when compared to gold, using models that adjust for volatility differences.
Their work implies an implied price target for Bitcoin around $126,000.
This suggests significant upside remains as the market embraces Bitcoin’s newfound stability and its expanding role among institutional investors.
Although Bitcoin has held resiliently above $111,000, this valuation gap indicates room for further appreciation as adoption grows and volatility stays subdued.
Market dynamics and future outlook
JPMorgan’s analysis also highlights changing market dynamics. Passive capital—money from index funds that buy shares of companies holding Bitcoin—is creating steady demand.
That steady flow helps shield Bitcoin from being driven solely by speculative trading.
The bank also notes the 200-day moving average has acted as a reliable technical support level, bolstering a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term price fluctuations.
However, some indicators show traders maintaining cautious hedges in options markets. This reflects a more short-term cautious sentiment, even as the broader trend remains positive.