XRP is currently positioned in what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO describes as a “macro decision zone,” where the next monthly candle close could determine whether the token forms a double bottom or resumes a slide toward $0.80.
Although XRP bounced after touching a 19-month low of $1.05 last week, it has not yet reclaimed the levels needed to give bulls meaningful confidence.
The Framework
EGRAG says a monthly close above $1.40 would confirm that the $1.05 low marked the bottom. In their view, reclaiming the $1.61–$1.65 range would mark the start of a genuine bullish recovery, and a break above $1.70 would add further confirmation. None of those levels have been secured so far.
The analyst also outlined a downside scenario: if XRP loses momentum, it could retest $0.80. Notably, no intermediate support levels were identified between the current price and $0.80 if the structure breaks down.
“Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” they wrote. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”
Earlier, EGRAG observed that XRP had reached $1.1860 and appeared to be “building momentum for the second push,” setting a short-term target of $1.19 to $1.25. The analyst warned that a drop below $1.14 would open the door to a retest of $1.10.
Market watcher CasiTrades added a complementary perspective, noting that XRP had “perfectly” hit a major 0.786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase. CasiTrades identified resistance zones at $1.19 and $1.27, warning that failure at those levels could lead to a deeper low toward the $0.90 area.
Conversely, if XRP pushes through both resistance zones, it would signal the market is building a new uptrend rather than preparing for another downward wave.
XRP Recovery Amid SBI’s Reward Program Launch
Some traders are paying attention to longer-term indicators. ChartNerd pointed out that XRP has closed below its 200-week simple moving average, a condition that historically has preceded cycle lows.
At the time of writing, the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had gained just over 1% in 24 hours. That uptick followed news that Japan’s SBI Bank launched a program allowing customers to exchange deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.
Despite the short-term gain, XRP was down more than 8% over the last seven days, underperforming the broader crypto market, which fell about 5.4% in the same period. Over one month, XRP has dropped more than 18%, and year-on-year it is nearly 49% lower. The token also sits about 68% below its July 2025 all-time high.
Some data provide a more optimistic view. On-chain analytics platform Santiment, using its 30-day MVRV metric, indicated XRP is in a “fair buy” zone where long-term investors might consider accumulating.
Looking further ahead, ChartNerd outlined potential Fibonacci extension targets for XRP at $8, $13, and $27, contingent on a proper cycle bottom forming before the end of the year. Those targets reflect a bullish long-term scenario rather than an immediate forecast.