- On December 24, 2025, Solana (SOL) traded around $122.
- Fresh losses pushed SOL close to a critical $120 threshold.
- Falling investor confidence and macroeconomic headwinds leave the altcoin at risk of further declines.
Solana extended its slide in the final weeks of 2025, dipping below $130 and probing levels near $120.
On Wednesday, prices hit those lows on major exchanges, and additional weakness could allow bears to test recent lows near $116.
The area around $120 served as intermittent support throughout the year.
As this pullback ties into a broader market retracement driven by reduced liquidity and profit-taking, SOL appears vulnerable to further pain.
Over the past year Solana underperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with SOL down about 38% versus roughly 11% and 16% for BTC and ETH respectively.
Solana price outlook: Is $100 next?
Technical analysis indicates Solana is at a key crossroads.
Charts show increasing signs of a bearish breakdown that could push prices toward $100 or lower in the near term.
A primary concern is SOL’s position relative to its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently estimated near $160–165 based on recent data.
Trading well below that level signals a loss of short-term momentum and strengthens the downtrend, as the 50-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance in recent months.
Momentum indicators further reinforce the bearish case.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the low-to-mid 30s on daily and weekly timeframes, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling a definitive reversal.
In technical terms this implies there is room for further downside before exhaustion sets in.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows negative readings, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming weakening bullish momentum and continued selling pressure.
Chart formations add to the cautionary picture.
Solana is testing weekly neckline support near $120. A decisive break below that level could accelerate declines toward deeper support in the $100–90 range.
What would a bullish scenario for Solana look like?
Despite these challenges, Solana’s ecosystem fundamentals remain intact.
The network processed billions of transactions in 2025 and continues to be known for high throughput and low fees.
Institutional milestones — including the launch of U.S. spot SOL ETFs and integrations with traditional financial platforms — have provided some counterbalance.
Solana spot ETFs recorded inflows on December 23, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced outflows.
Although volumes were modest compared with earlier in the month, cumulative net inflows surpassed $754 million, which is a positive sign for SOL.
However, if institutional interest wanes further, the short-term technical setup would remain consistent with the broader downward trend.