- Global stablecoin markets could expand nearly tenfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
- Potential U.S. stablecoin legislation is expected to drive much of this growth.
- The report adds that a larger stablecoin reserve would increase demand for the U.S. dollar.
According to a new report from Standard Chartered, global stablecoin markets could grow almost tenfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028 as expected U.S. regulation brings clarity to the sector.
Analysts led by Geoffrey Kendrick predict that forthcoming legislation will legitimize the asset class, accelerating adoption and reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s central role in global digital finance.
The bill in question—known as the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins)—cleared the Senate Banking Committee last month and is expected to move forward this summer.
Standard Chartered argues the proposal would formalize operational standards and reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers, driving total market supply from the current $230 billion to $2 trillion within four years.
Implications for U.S. Treasury markets and dollar dominance
Such an expansion would have material implications for U.S. Treasury markets.
The analysts estimate that stablecoin issuers would need to purchase about $1.6 trillion of short-term government debt by 2028 to meet reserve requirements—representing a substantial share of new T-bill issuance demand during a potential second term of President Donald Trump.
“Over the last four COVID-affected years the only comparable demand was from foreign buyers, but it was spread across T-bills, notes and bonds,” the report notes.
The GENIUS Act would require stablecoin reserves to be held in assets with maturities of no more than 93 days, effectively channeling capital into the short-term government debt market.
Standard Chartered highlights Circle’s reserve model—where 88% of USDC reserves are held in government obligations with an average maturity of roughly 12 days—as likely to become an industry standard once regulation is established.
Dollar strengthened in the medium term
The report adds that an expanded stablecoin reserve base would raise demand for the U.S. dollar and strengthen the dollar’s dominant position in trade and cross-border payments.
“If international finance is seeking an alternative to the USD that can offer the same flexibility and liquidity, that search has not yet replaced the dollar,” the report states.
Rapid innovation in USD-backed stablecoins, the analysts say, continues to deepen the dollar’s entrenchment.
However, they caution that longer-term risks to dollar hegemony could emerge if stablecoin development moves toward multi-currency or non-dollar-pegged tokens.
While concepts such as an IMF Special Drawing Rights–style basket have not achieved global adoption, a sufficiently liquid, diversified digital currency basket could attract central banks and sovereign wealth funds if digital asset reserves gain institutional legitimacy.
For now, Standard Chartered views advancing U.S. regulation as a catalyst for one of the most significant structural shifts in global liquidity flows, with stablecoins becoming a dominant instrument for digital payments and financial reserves.