XRP is trading at $1.45 as the new week begins, quietly putting together one of its more notable recoveries since the cycle peak.
While Bitcoin’s recent advance has created a rising macro tide, XRP is testing the convergence of the 100-day moving average and the upper boundary of a descending channel at the same time. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing genuine momentum for the first time in weeks. How the asset performs over the next 48 hours could be the most technically significant test this corrective phase has produced.
Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair
For the first time since the failed mid-April breakout attempt, XRP is challenging the descending channel’s upper rail with an RSI that has climbed into the 60–65 range and remains well below overbought levels. The price currently sits near the 100-day moving average at roughly $1.40, which converges with the channel’s upper boundary around $1.45. This area represents the most technically significant resistance zone on the chart.
A sustained daily close above $1.50 would signal both a channel breakout and a reclaiming of the moving average—providing the type of dual confirmation that earlier attempts lacked. If that confirmation arrives, the first meaningful upside target becomes the $1.80 supply zone, where the 200-day moving average also resides. On the downside, the February demand zone near $1.20 remains the critical support level; losing that area would raise the likelihood of a continuation of the bearish trend.
The BTC Pair
Against Bitcoin, XRP’s structure remains bearish, but the RSI has dropped to around 25 and then rebounded, forming a clear bullish divergence marked on the chart. The pair trades near 1,760 sats—below the broken 1,800 sat support level but still under its gravitational pull. The lower boundary of the channel, sloping down toward 1,600 sats, serves as the nearest support if the market weakens further.
Oversold RSI readings and bullish divergence at such extremes do not automatically indicate a structural reversal, but historically they have often preceded at least a relief bounce. On the upside, the 100-day moving average at roughly 2,000 sats and the 200-day moving average near 2,100 sats remain the key ceilings that would define any substantive recovery above 1,800 sats. For now, the BTC pair continues to tell the same story it has for months: XRP is underperforming Bitcoin, though the current technical signs suggest selling pressure may be nearing a short-term exhaustion point.