Bitcoin (BTC) could rise above $90,000 and potentially revisit its all-time high of about $126,000, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Hayes attributes much of the current crypto bull market to aggressive government and central bank spending on AI infrastructure, expanded military expenditures, and energy security projects, all of which he says have injected substantial liquidity into markets.
Hayes Links Bitcoin’s Outlook to AI Spending and Wartime Liquidity
The heart of Hayes’s argument is that both the Chinese and U.S. governments have created political cover to pursue aggressive money creation, and that this wave of liquidity will benefit Bitcoin more than most other assets.
One major driver, Hayes argues, is the global AI arms race. He asserts that leaders in both countries consider machine intelligence a matter of national survival rather than merely an economic or commercial opportunity.
“The presidents of America and China both believe that AI and tech supremacy are integral to the survival of their fiefdoms,” Hayes wrote, adding that technology industries in both nations have painted dire scenarios of national decline if the other side gains AI superiority.
According to Hayes, that narrative makes central bank resistance to inflationary lending politically difficult. As a result, dollars and yuan will be directed toward AI projects regardless of the inflationary impact on consumer prices.
The second driver Hayes highlights is the U.S. military action against Iran. He points to February 28—the date the attack began—as the moment the current bull market gained real momentum. Hayes contends that the conflict underscored a global reality: the U.S. may take military actions that disrupt commodity flows without consulting countries most affected by those disruptions.
Consequently, Hayes believes many sovereign nations will reduce their habit of recycling trade surpluses into U.S. Treasuries and U.S.-listed equity ETFs. Instead, they will redirect capital into pipelines, national defense, and strategic commodity stockpiles.
He sees that shift creating structural pressure on U.S. markets, which in his view the Federal Reserve and Treasury will address by loosening financial conditions—measures like expanded dollar swap lines and eased banking regulations.
Those actions, Hayes argues, will increase dollar supply, and in his framework more dollars in circulation translate into higher Bitcoin prices.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Hayes is confident that Bitcoin’s return to its all-time high is a question of timing rather than possibility.
“Retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion,” he wrote.
He predicts the rally could accelerate once BTC surpasses $90,000. Hayes believes many covered-call sellers would be forced to repurchase contracts as prices move through strike levels, producing a feedback loop that intensifies upward pressure.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades below $81,000—up nearly 13% over the past month but still about 36% beneath its ATH. Despite that gap, institutional and retail flows point to improving sentiment.
Data from asset managers show continued inflows into digital-asset products: recent reports recorded $857.9 million in inflows for the latest week, marking a sixth consecutive week of positive flows. Bitcoin alone accounted for $706 million of that amount, bringing its year-to-date inflow total to approximately $4.9 billion.