Cardano (ADA) has lost more than 70% of its value over the past year, including a 30% drop in 2026 alone. Multiple attempts to break above the $0.25 level have failed, leaving the token under considerable selling pressure.
Despite the price decline, wallets holding large stakes of ADA—so-called millionaire wallets—have been steadily increasing their positions, indicating that some major holders remain active and confident in the long term.
Millionaire Wallets Reach Record Holdings
Addresses holding at least one million ADA now collectively hold 25.11 billion ADA, the highest balance observed since December 2017. According to on-chain analytics provider Santiment, these wallets control 67.5% of the total ADA supply, the most concentrated ownership since July 2020.
Santiment notes that accumulation by large holders is often interpreted as a sign of confidence from stakeholders with significant exposure to the token. As a long-term signal, the trend can be seen as bullish for investors who are prepared to hold through volatility.
This renewed accumulation comes amid ongoing concerns about Cardano’s ecosystem growth. Critics point out that the network has struggled to match the developer activity, decentralized finance (DeFi) traction, and user adoption seen on some rival chains. Earlier this month, analyst Ali Martinez questioned Cardano’s long-term prospects, arguing that on-chain activity remains relatively modest compared with its multibillion-dollar market valuation.
Martinez highlighted that Cardano’s DeFi sector has not exceeded $1 billion in total value locked (TVL) and lags behind incumbents like Ethereum. He also noted that newer chains have demonstrated stronger short-term usage, and argued that Cardano has not yet established a clear niche that consistently attracts developers, users, and capital. He attributed part of the slower pace to the network’s research-focused development process, which can delay feature rollouts. Other analysts have similarly debated whether Cardano is overvalued relative to its current ecosystem metrics.
Data from DeFiLlama shows Cardano’s TVL has dropped below $125 million at the time of writing, down roughly 82% from nearly $721 million in November 2024—an indication of the network’s challenges in maintaining DeFi activity and liquidity.
Technical Picture Remains Weak
Technically, the chart for ADA looks fragile. Trader “Val Me” described Cardano’s price action as “very sad looking,” noting that ADA remains weak on higher timeframes even as it trades near a key support zone around $0.22. According to the trader, the token could either bounce from current levels or briefly break equal lows before a recovery attempt.
Val Me outlined a range of potential moves: a short-term rebound could aim toward roughly $0.50, but that recovery might only form a lower high prior to another retest of the support area. A more bullish scenario—one that targets a sustained move toward $1.35—would require ADA to first establish a higher low, which the analyst considers unlikely at this stage without clearer evidence of demand returning.
In summary, while large holders have been accumulating ADA and concentration among millionaire wallets is at multi-year highs, the broader picture remains mixed. On-chain accumulation suggests confidence from some significant investors, but persistent ecosystem challenges, falling TVL, and a weak technical structure underline the risks that continue to weigh on Cardano’s short- to medium-term outlook.