- Breakout from a seven-year double-bottom pattern confirmed.
- 95% probability of spot ETF approval influencing sentiment.
- XRP Ledger market cap-to-TVL ratio stands at about 2,200.
XRP has surged more than 550% since November, pushing above $3 on Tuesday and sparking renewed debate across the crypto community about how far the token could climb next.
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen highlights a long-term chart pattern that, if fully realized, points to a potential target near $34 by mid-2026. His projection stems from a measured move on a completed multi-year double-bottom formation — a bullish setup that historically precedes significant price advances.
While precedents from past bull cycles, recent legal developments involving Ripple, and growing expectations for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have all supported bullish sentiment, on-chain indicators warn of valuation and profit-taking risks that could temper any extended rally.
At the time of writing, XRP trades around $3.19, down about 0.8% over the past 24 hours.
Technical breakout points to a multi-year rally
According to Van Lagen, XRP has broken out of a seven-year double-bottom after clearing neckline resistance near $1.80. The price then retested that neckline, which acted as support — a classic confirmation signal in technical analysis.
Applying a 2.00 Fibonacci extension to the measured move from this structure yields a target near $34 by mid-2026. Analysts note the setup bears resemblance to XRP’s 2014–2017 base, which ultimately produced an extremely large parabolic advance.
XRP’s market history includes multiple strong rallies: a roughly 1,072% gain from 2022 lows and a 1,625% rise in the 2020–2021 cycle, demonstrating the asset’s capacity for outsized moves when momentum and narrative align.
Market drivers boosting XRP’s rally
Past rallies have coincided with broader macro conditions such as near-zero interest rates in the US. The current advance, however, has been driven more by developments specific to Ripple: meaningful progress in its legal situation, clearer regulatory signals, relistings on exchanges, and growing optimism for a spot XRP ETF.
In 2025, market sentiment has been heavily influenced by forecasts putting the probability of a spot ETF approval at roughly 95%. Analysts argue that if approval materializes, XRP could accelerate toward the $25–$30 range, moving toward Van Lagen’s longer-term target.
The ETF narrative has been especially potent because it implies a potential inflow of institutional capital. Historically, regulatory approvals and similar milestones have triggered large short-term inflows that amplify price moves.
Onchain metrics signal overvaluation risks
Despite bullish technicals and favorable narratives, on-chain data highlight several concerns. Activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) remains low compared with major Layer 1 networks like Ethereum. According to DeFiLlama, XRP’s market capitalization is roughly $190 billion while its total value locked (TVL) is roughly $85 million — a market-cap-to-TVL ratio near 2,200.
By comparison, Ethereum’s ratio sits near 5.6, even though Ethereum’s market value is substantially higher. The disparity suggests XRPL’s valuation is not currently matched by comparable decentralized finance activity or locked value.
Additional red flags include data from Glassnode indicating that more than 95% of XRP’s circulating supply is in profit. Historically, similarly high levels of realized profit have preceded sizable corrections as holders take gains and selling pressure increases. Those dynamics were evident in prior cycles, including the 2020–21 and the 2022–25 periods, which both saw pullbacks after rapid advances.
In summary, technical patterns and positive market drivers are supporting a bullish case for XRP, and a confirmed spot ETF approval could further accelerate the rally. However, the large imbalance between market valuation and actual on-chain activity, combined with elevated profit-taking potential, suggests that pushing sustainably above the $25–$30 range would likely encounter meaningful resistance and volatility.