- NAV references for BTC and ETH ETFs support the forecast.
- The SEC’s final deadline for XRP ETF approval is the 12th.
- Polymarket data shows a 79% chance of approval by year-end.
Expectations for an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) are building across the crypto sector as analysts weigh potential inflows, market impacts and regulatory dynamics.
While rumors and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from major institutions are beginning to provide a clearer picture.
Standard Chartered Bank estimates that a U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion of inflows in its first year, based on net asset value (NAV)-to-market-cap reference ratios observed in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Although optimistic, this projection is presented with caution by other market participants.
Standard Chartered bases forecast on ETF references
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved U.S. spot ETFs were used to model potential XRP ETF inflows.
Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs currently show NAVs at roughly 6% and 3% of their respective market capitalizations.
Applying those ratios to XRP’s market cap produces an estimated range of $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion.
Kendrick also highlighted data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe, where XRP, Solana and Litecoin trade alongside BTC and ETH.
He noted that altcoins represent a larger share of ETP NAV relative to their market caps, although that may reflect the smaller number of products available for altcoins compared with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP price outlook revised amid ETF optimism
Based on expected ETF inflows, Standard Chartered projects a significant rise in the XRP price.
The bank forecasts XRP reaching $5.50 by the end of 2025 and $8.00 in 2026.
Its target for 2029 is set at $12.25.
These projections assume XRP ETF approval and a continued expansion in investment vehicles for digital assets.
For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by year-end and $500,000 by 2028.
XRP is expected to track alongside them, though with lower overall adoption and different inflation dynamics.
XRP’s current inflation rate stands at about 6%, compared with Bitcoin’s 0.8%.
Bitfinex analysts offer a cautious counterpoint
Despite bullish estimates, not all market observers are convinced XRP ETFs will generate the same level of demand as Bitcoin products.
Analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that investor interest may be spread thin across an expanding roster of altcoin ETFs.
As a result, XRP may not see inflows comparable to Bitcoin even if ETFs are approved.
Their caution reflects broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity.
While Bitcoin benefits from clearer classification as a commodity, XRP has faced classification questions and legal disputes that could affect investor confidence.
Timeline for XRP ETF approval remains uncertain
Several financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary and 21Shares, have applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for XRP ETFs.
Bitwise’s filing was officially acknowledged on the 18th.
This mirrors the timeline used for Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024.
However, other altcoin ETF applications, such as those for Solana and Litecoin, could influence when an XRP decision is made.
According to Kendrick, Litecoin could be prioritized given its similarities to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity.
Polymarket data currently shows a 39% probability of XRP ETF approval by July 31 and a 79% chance by the end of the year.
Analysts including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest Litecoin may be the first altcoin to secure approval, followed by HBAR and ultimately XRP and Solana, which still face unresolved classification questions regarding securities status.