- XRP Ledger TVL dropped 12.5% to US$54.2 million.
- Open interest fell 36%, funding rates turned negative.
- Death cross and descending triangle indicate more downside.
XRP is under renewed downward pressure as geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty, and weakening on-chain indicators push the token toward a potentially significant breakdown.
Once buoyed by optimism over a possible XRP spot ETF and court victories for Ripple, the cryptocurrency is now testing critical support near the $2 level. After recent losses, XRP has staged a modest rebound and is currently up about 3.34%, trading around $2.02.
With bearish technical patterns forming and key metrics turning negative, analysts warn the next leg down could take XRP toward $1.47 or lower if selling intensifies.
ETF delay and macro risks hurt sentiment
Investor confidence weakened after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP ETF. This postponement added to a string of regulatory setbacks affecting crypto assets in the United States and fed speculation that institutional adoption of XRP may take longer than anticipated.
The ETF decision delay arrived amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As fears of a wider conflict grew, Bitcoin and many large altcoins moved into risk-off territory, and XRP was especially hard hit, entering one of its longest losing streaks in over a month.
That combination—the regulatory setback plus the broader crypto selloff—eroded momentum quickly, leaving XRP trading just above its crucial $2 support. Today’s reclaiming of $2.00 represents a short-term bounce that traders are watching closely for signs of follow-through or renewed selling.
On-chain metrics flash weakness
Network metrics are showing deterioration. Total value locked (TVL) on the XRP Ledger has fallen roughly 12.5% to US$54.2 million, signaling reduced participation and softer decentralized finance activity. This decline raises questions about XRP’s on-chain utility relative to competing networks that are showing more resilient metrics.
Derivatives data also paints a bearish picture: open interest in XRP contracts has dropped nearly 36% while funding rates have turned negative. Those readings suggest traders are positioning more conservatively, expecting lower prices in the near term.
Technical charts reveal a descending triangle pattern—a formation often associated with downside risk—together with a “death cross,” where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. Both indicators increase the probability of further weakness unless buyers step in decisively.
Support zones and possible downside targets
Technical analyst EGRAG Crypto identifies the $2.10–$2.09 area as a key support zone that historically aligned with the 200-day moving average. Repeated tests of that region have weakened it, making a decisive breach more likely if selling resumes.
If XRP fails to hold above $2, the next demand zone is located between $1.90 and $1.77. A deeper breakdown could push price toward the $1.47 support level. In a worst-case scenario fueled by panic selling, analysts note the possibility of a move below $1, though that would require a sustained surge in negative sentiment and liquidity outflows.
For now, the recovery to $2.02 delays the immediate downside path and offers a short-lived reprieve, but traders remain cautious given the broader technical and macro backdrop.
ETF hopes and bounce arguments remain
Despite the bearish signals, some traders and analysts retain a bullish view. XRP produced a quick V-shaped recovery from about $1.91 to above $2, supported by roughly US$4 billion in futures volume—evidence that demand still exists at lower levels.
Popular trader CasiTrades has argued that a successful defense of the $2 area could clear a path toward $3, especially if trading volume sustains and macro headlines turn more favorable. Additionally, event-based markets like Polymarket have shown strong odds—over 80% in some instances—for a spot XRP ETF approval later in the year, which bulls cite as a potential catalyst.
The question now is whether the recent bounce contains enough volume and follow-through to drive prices higher, or whether sellers will reassert control around the current levels.
Outlook hinges on technicals and regulation
XRP stands at a key inflection point. If the $2 support breaks decisively, downside risks could accelerate and push price toward the $1.47 area or lower. Conversely, sustained support above $2—combined with improving ETF sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions—could set the stage for a reversal toward the $2.30–$2.33 range and potentially higher.
Market participants should closely monitor SEC developments around ETF approvals, shifts in geopolitical risk, and on-chain metrics such as TVL and derivatives open interest. Price action around the $2 zone will likely determine whether the current bounce evolves into a recovery or simply precedes another leg down.