- Stellar (XLM) price eyes a breakout as on-chain bullish signals strengthen.
- TVL rose 11x in four months, signaling growing investor confidence.
- Derivatives data and RSI point to a potential upward reversal.
Stellar’s native token XLM appears poised for a notable price breakout as a convergence of technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggests a possible upward reversal in the coming days.
After a difficult June that saw the price retreat nearly 28% from mid-May highs, XLM is beginning to show signs of renewed strength fueled by improving investor sentiment, funding trends and robust blockchain activity.
XLM has stabilized following the June pullback
As of June 26, 2025, Stellar (XLM) was trading around $0.2352, down about 3.2% over the previous 24 hours but reflecting a nearly 6% recovery earlier in the week.
For almost 45 days the token has been contained in a descending channel, dampening market sentiment. That said, XLM is now trading near the channel’s upper boundary — a level often associated with breakout potential.
Despite a market capitalization of roughly $7.34 billion that is lower than previous highs, on-chain fundamentals point to rising confidence in the project, suggesting price may soon follow the improving outlook.
Rising total value locked has sparked optimism
One of the most compelling signals comes from Stellar’s total value locked (TVL), which climbed from a low of about $7.2 million in 2024 to over $95.28 million, according to DeFiLlama.
This represents an approximately 11-fold increase in TVL in just four months.
The strong TVL growth despite earlier price weakness indicates that investors are deploying capital into Stellar’s ecosystem with increasing conviction, likely favoring long-term fundamentals over short-term volatility.
The TVL trend mirrors growing adoption of Stellar-based DeFi platforms such as Scopuly, which recently suggested an imminent breakout and set a target near the $0.46 level based on its analysis.
Address activity and sentiment reinforce the bullish case
Beyond TVL, Stellar’s on-chain usage supports the bullish narrative through rising monthly active addresses and growing recurring engagement.
Data from Dune Analytics shows that in May there were 263,250 active addresses, including 173,670 returning users and 89,590 new users, indicating increasing participation across the network.
This uptick in address activity, combined with Santiment’s weighted sentiment turning positive around the $0.225 level, points to fading fear and a return of speculative confidence among market participants.
Technical indicators point to a potential upside reversal
From a charting perspective, the $0.253 resistance has emerged as a key short-term hurdle that bulls need to clear to confirm a breakout from the current downtrend structure.
A daily close above this level would likely open the door to a double-digit rally toward the $0.285 area and potentially higher toward $0.40, where earlier selling pressure began in mid-May.
The RSI, currently above 37, has recovered from oversold territory and could amplify upward momentum if it climbs past the neutral 50 level in coming sessions.
Similarly, the MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, which would add another layer of confirmation for technical traders considering long positions.
With support around $0.2280 intact and resistance near $0.2703 within reach, XLM’s short-term trajectory may be decided by how the price behaves around the critical $0.253 zone.
If bulls sustain momentum and push through that barrier, a multi-week rally could unfold — driven not by hype but by growing investor interest and expanding on-chain fundamentals across Stellar’s network.