- Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq can be misleading.
- Bernstein noted that between ETF holdings and corporate treasuries nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now effectively locked up.
- Chhugani observed that current momentum from corporations and institutions alone could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025.
Bitcoin could be poised to reach new highs as corporate accumulation and renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) create a tightening of supply, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said in a client note on Monday.
The team, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and other assets such as gold or the Nasdaq are often misleading. Instead, they said, indicators like fading retail participation, growing corporate treasury accumulation, and strong ETF inflows provide a clearer signal of Bitcoin’s likely trajectory.
Last week, SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex and Cantor Fitzgerald announced the launch of Twenty One Capital, a corporate Bitcoin financing initiative that begins with 42,000 BTC.
The effort will be supported by $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether and $600 million from Bitfinex, with plans to merge with Cantor Equity Partners via a SPAC and raise an additional $585 million at close.
Bernstein compared Twenty One Capital’s approach to other major corporate strategies that raised $22 billion in 2024 and $8.6 billion so far in 2025 to aggressively expand their Bitcoin holdings.
However, the firm highlighted Twenty One’s standout advantage: its backing by major players, particularly Tether, which reportedly generated $13 billion in revenue in 2024 from its $148 billion USDT supply.
Analysts noted that corporate accumulation is becoming increasingly competitive. Roughly 80 companies now hold about 700,000 BTC, representing approximately 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
ETF inflows and returns
Meanwhile, after a two-month pause following Bitcoin’s roughly 31% drop from its peak above $109,000 on launch day to a low near $75,000, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive again.
More than $3 billion flowed in last week — the largest weekly inflow in five months and the second-biggest on record. Bitcoin was recently trading near $95,295.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now account for over 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply, equivalent to roughly $110 billion in assets under management.
Of those holdings, nearly 33% are owned by institutional investors — up from about 20% in September — with 48% of institutional AUM held by investment advisers and 31% by hedge funds.
Bernstein pointed out that between ETF reserves and corporate treasuries, nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s supply is effectively locked up — a sevenfold increase since January 2024.
Separately, President Trump’s recent executive order to explore establishing a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve could further accelerate sovereign adoption of Bitcoin.
Chhugani noted that while current corporate and institutional momentum might be sufficient to drive Bitcoin to new highs in 2025, any material government purchases by the U.S. would likely not be priced in and could trigger a global shift in sovereign accumulation strategies.