- Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq are misleading.
- Bernstein noted that roughly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now locked up between ETF holdings and corporate treasuries.
- Chhugani observed that the current momentum from corporations and institutions alone could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025.
Bitcoin may soon reach new highs as corporate accumulation and renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) create mounting supply pressure, analysts at brokerage and research firm Bernstein said in a note to clients on Monday.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the team argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and other assets—such as gold or the Nasdaq—can be misleading. Instead, clearer signals for Bitcoin’s trajectory come from factors like exhaustion among retail sellers, growing corporate treasuries, and strong ETF inflows.
Last week, SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex and Cantor Fitzgerald announced the launch of Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin corporate treasury venture that will begin with 42,000 BTC.
The initiative will be backed by $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether and $600 million from Bitfinex, with plans to merge with Cantor Equity Partners via a SPAC and raise an additional $585 million at closing.
Bernstein compared Twenty One Capital’s approach to another strategy that raised $22 billion in 2024 and $8.6 billion so far in 2025 to aggressively build Bitcoin reserves.
Twenty One’s primary advantage, Bernstein said, is its backing—particularly from Tether, which generated $13 billion in 2024 from its 148 billion USDT supply.
Corporate accumulation is becoming increasingly competitive, the analysts noted. Around 80 companies now hold roughly 700,000 BTC, representing about 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
ETF inflow returns
After a two-month lull following Bitcoin’s 31% decline from its record high—above $109,000 on its debut day—to a low near $75,000, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned positive again.
More than $3 billion was added last week—the largest weekly inflow in five months and the second-largest inflow on record. Bitcoin was recently trading around $95,295.
ETFs now represent more than 5.5% of total Bitcoin supply, equal to roughly $110 billion in assets under management.
Nearly 33% of those ETF holdings are owned by institutional investors—up from about 20% in September—while 48% of institutional AUM is held by investment advisors and 31% by hedge funds.
Bernstein highlighted that, combined with corporate treasuries, nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now locked up in ETF holdings and corporate reserves—a sevenfold increase since January 2024.
Separately, recent proposals by the U.S. administration to establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve could further accelerate sovereign adoption of Bitcoin.
Chhugani noted that although current corporate and institutional momentum alone could drive Bitcoin to new highs in 2025, any significant Bitcoin purchases by the U.S. government are not yet priced in and could trigger a wider shift in sovereign accumulation strategies worldwide.