- Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq can be misleading.
- Bernstein noted that ETF holdings and corporate treasuries have effectively locked up roughly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
- Chhugani said that with the current momentum among corporations and institutions, Bitcoin could reach new highs in 2025.
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said in a client note on Monday that increased corporate accumulation and fresh inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are creating a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin to a new record high soon.
The team led by Gautam Chhugani argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets such as gold or the Nasdaq are often misleading. Instead, clearer signals about Bitcoin’s trajectory come from factors like retail sell-offs, corporate balance-sheet accumulation, and robust ETF inflows.
Last week, SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex, and Kanter Fitzgerald announced the launch of Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin corporate finance venture starting with 42,000 BTC.
The venture has secured funding commitments of $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether, and $600 million from Bitfinex. It plans to merge with Kanter Equity Partners via a SPAC and raise an additional $585 million upon deal completion.
Bernstein compared Twenty One Capital’s strategy to other corporate efforts that have actively increased Bitcoin holdings, noting that the firm aims to accumulate $22 billion in 2024 and has already raised $8.6 billion in 2025 strategies to date.
However, Bernstein highlighted that Twenty One’s greatest strength is its backers—particularly Tether, which reportedly generated $13 billion from a $148 billion USDT supply in 2024.
Analysts pointed out that corporate Bitcoin accumulation is becoming more competitive. They estimate that about 80 companies now hold roughly 700,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
ETF Inflows Return
Bitcoin fell about 31% from its all-time high above $109,000 on inauguration day to lows near $75,000 and spent two months in a consolidation phase. Since then, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive again.
Last week saw more than $3 billion in inflows—the largest weekly amount in five months and the second-largest overall. Bitcoin has recently been trading around $95,295.
ETFs now hold more than 5.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, representing roughly $110 billion in assets under management.
About one-third of that AUM is held by institutional investors, up from around 20% in September. Of institutional AUM, 48% is held by investment advisors and 31% by hedge funds.
Bernstein estimated that ETF holdings combined with corporate treasuries have effectively locked up about 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply—a figure that has grown sevenfold since January 2024.
The analysts also noted that a recent executive order from President Trump establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could further accelerate national adoption of Bitcoin.
Chhugani emphasized that the current momentum among corporations and institutional investors alone could be enough to propel Bitcoin to new highs in 2025. He added that large-scale Bitcoin purchases by the U.S. government are not yet priced into the market and could trigger a global shift toward state-level asset accumulation strategies.