A new study by CoinGecko finds that buying Bitcoin on U.S. holidays has historically produced stronger short-term returns than purchases made on regular trading days.
The analysis reviewed Bitcoin’s forward returns on different calendar days from May 1, 2013, through May 8, 2026, with a focus on single-day gains following a purchase.
BTC’s Strongest Next-Day Rallies
CoinGecko’s data shows that U.S. holidays delivered an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, versus 0.19% on non-holidays. Holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 years covered by the study. Among weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays registered the only negative average return at -0.09%.
New Year’s Day emerged as the best-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%—meaning Bitcoin rose the day after in 11 of those 13 years. Columbus Day matched the 84.6% win rate with an average next-day return of 1.70%, and Christmas produced an average next-day gain of 1.46% with a 53.8% win rate.
CoinGecko suggests the New Year’s Day effect may reflect the broader January momentum often observed in traditional markets, when investors deploy fresh capital at the start of the year. The study also notes that Bitcoin could benefit from a reduction in December tax-loss selling followed by renewed positioning in January. Although Bitcoin’s January 1 price ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, the tendency for next-day gains stayed relatively consistent across the sample period.
Not all holidays produced positive outcomes. Martin Luther King Jr. Day showed the weakest performance, with an average next-day loss of 0.84%, heavily influenced by an 18.65% drop on January 15, 2018, during the early crypto bear market. Independence Day also averaged a negative return of 0.26%. Veterans Day registered an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko cautioned that this figure was skewed by a few unusually large rallies and that the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
The report found little meaningful difference between weekday and weekend performance. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return, while weekends averaged 0.22%—a statistically insignificant gap given Bitcoin’s continuous 24/7 trading environment.
Over a one-year holding period, the purchase day had minimal impact on long-term returns. Average annual gains across all weekdays varied by just 2.4 percentage points. CoinGecko added that slight advantages for holiday purchases over one year likely reflect broader market cycles rather than a persistent holiday-driven effect.
Multiple Pressures Hit Bitcoin
Regarding recent price action, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 earlier this week but has since moved back above that level. Market observers noted the decline stemmed from several simultaneous pressures. On-chain data indicated that exchange outflows had slowed sharply before the sell-off, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing available sell-side supply.
Meanwhile, derivatives traders were building short positions while leveraged long exposure remained high. As prices began to fall, long liquidations accelerated the downward move. Rising inflation concerns after fresh U.S. CPI and PPI releases, combined with heavy selling by large holders, added further downward pressure on the market.