Key takeaways
- Sui fell about 10% on Friday, marking its fifth straight day of losses.
- The technical outlook is bearish, and SUI faces risk of a deeper decline toward $1.00 if selling pressure continues.
Sui (SUI) dropped roughly 10% on Friday as retail interest weakened and the token extended a multi-day decline. Market attention has shifted away from underperforming layer-1 assets, and technical indicators point to possible further downside.
Derivatives weakness points to sell-side dominance
SUI’s weakness is visible in the derivatives market. Data from CoinGlass show SUI futures open interest declined by about 10.5% over 24 hours to $727.97 million, reflecting a lower notional value of outstanding contracts. During the same period, approximately $7.2 million in positions were liquidated, with the majority coming from long positions, signaling pronounced sell-side pressure.
Technical outlook: Could SUI fall below $1?
On the SUI/USD 4-hour chart, the short-term bias is bearish. SUI is trading below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.1558 and beneath the lower Bollinger Band at $1.1442, which underlines near-term weakness. At the same time, the token remains above the 200-period EMA at $1.0270, indicating the longer-term recovery structure is not yet broken despite waning momentum.
Momentum indicators favor sellers: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 level to around 46, and the MACD histogram remains negative. These signals suggest that any rebounds may encounter persistent selling pressure.
If bearish momentum continues, initial support lies at the 200-period EMA near $1.0270 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $0.9972. A decisive daily close below that zone could open the path toward the prior cycle low near $0.8815.
On the upside, if buyers regain control, SUI could first test resistance at $1.2171. A sustained recovery might push the token toward the upper Bollinger Band near $1.29 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.2947.
Overall, SUI’s technical picture shows weakening momentum. Traders should watch both spot and derivatives markets closely for confirmation of further downside or signs of a relief rally, and manage risk accordingly.