- SUI has broken below a key support level as bearish sentiment intensifies.
- Derivatives data show declining interest and rising short positions.
- Network activity plunged sharply, signaling weak fundamental support.
The price of Sui (SUI) has come under heavy pressure in recent days, raising concerns among traders and investors about the risk of a deeper correction in the near term.
After what looked like a promising rally above $4, SUI reversed course, erasing gains and now testing a critical support zone that could determine the token’s next major move.
Notably, SUI opened the week on a bearish note and continued its slide, falling more than 5% over the past 24 hours to trade around $2.75. That marks a significant decline from a recent high of $3.51.
Although the token still shows an impressive 255% gain year-over-year, its short-term momentum has weakened considerably.
Price analysis for SUI signals caution
SUI recently broke out of a triangle pattern, triggering a wave of selling that pulled the token back to a familiar support level at $2.78, which acted as a floor in late March.
If this support zone fails to hold at the daily close, the price could sharply retreat toward $2.24, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement measured from the all-time high of $5.35 to the yearly low of $1.71.
Momentum indicators offer mixed but generally bearish signals.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory at around 33.64 and has formed a bullish divergence that some traders view as a possible reversal sign, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bearish territory with no clear sign of bullish momentum yet.
SUI derivatives market shows bearish sentiment
Coinglass data highlight a sharp drop in SUI open interest (OI), now around $1.15 billion — the lowest level in nearly two months.
This represents a 43% decline from the May peak of $2.05 billion, indicating a clear capital outflow from the derivatives market.
The falling OI is accompanied by a lower OI-weighted funding rate, currently at 0.0060%, further signaling diminished bullish conviction.
Buy/sell taker volume also shows short positions are now dominant, accounting for 55% of volume versus 45% for longs.
These figures point to a decisive shift in trader sentiment, with the long/short ratio at 0.8195 indicating a prevailing bearish bias.
Unless sentiment improves, pressure on spot prices is likely to persist.
Head and shoulders pattern points to a $2.20 target
Technical analysts have identified a head and shoulders formation on the daily SUI chart, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
According to market analyst NebraskanGooner, this classic reversal setup could push SUI into the $2.20 area by early July.
The breakdown from the right shoulder coincided with a rejection at the 99-day simple moving average, underscoring the token’s inability to hold key technical levels.
$SUI (per request)
Rejected key resistance and now back below 99smma
Also looks like a head and shoulders breakdown which yields a measured target in the $2.20’s area. https://t.co/URt8sTIvo5 pic.twitter.com/vIC72brZ7O
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) June 17, 2025
The $3.00–$3.10 zone, which previously acted as support, is now a significant resistance barrier.
If bulls fail to reclaim that area in upcoming sessions, the bearish pattern could remain intact and exert further downward pressure on price action in the short term.
Weakening network activity raises further doubts
On-chain metrics also paint a bleak near-term outlook for SUI.
Daily network transaction volumes have plunged from more than 19 million to just 9 million, while daily active accounts dropped from 1.66 million to roughly 320,000, according to SuiVision statistics.
This steep decline in on-chain activity reflects waning interest and suggests the earlier rally may have been driven more by speculation than sustained demand.
Losses in both price momentum and network usage underscore the challenges SUI could face in mounting a quick recovery.
Despite a modest rebound in futures exposure with open interest hovering around $1.2 billion, the broader outlook remains cautious.
Market participants appear to be waiting for clearer signals before committing to new positions.
What to watch going forward
All eyes are now on the $2.78 support level. A successful bounce from this area could open the door for a move back toward the psychological $3.00 level and potentially the monthly high near $3.55.
Conversely, a breakdown followed by a failed retest could pave the way for a decline to $2.20 or lower.
Some analysts project longer-term upside — for example, certain price forecasts suggest a range between $3.77 and $5.80 by the end of 2025 — but the short-term path is clouded by technical weakness and falling on-chain activity.
For now, until bulls regain key resistance levels and network fundamentals stabilize, SUI’s near-term outlook is likely to remain fragile.
Traders should closely monitor technical support zones and overall market sentiment before taking high-conviction positions.