- SUI has plunged below a key support level as bearish sentiment rises.
- Derivatives data show falling interest and growing short positions.
- Network activity has dropped sharply, signaling weak fundamental support.
The price of Sui (SUI) has come under heavy pressure in recent days, raising concern among traders and investors about the possibility of a deeper correction in the near term.
After what looked like a promising rally above the $4 mark, SUI has since given back gains and is now testing a crucial support zone that could determine the token’s next major move.
Specifically, SUI opened the week on a bearish note and continued to slide, falling more than 5% in the past 24 hours to trade around $2.75. This represents a notable pullback from the recent high near $3.51.
Although the token still shows an impressive 255% gain over the past year, its short-term momentum has weakened.
Price analysis signals caution for SUI
SUI recently broke down from a triangle pattern, triggering selling that pulled the token back to a familiar support area near $2.78, which acted as a floor in late March.
Failure to hold this zone on a daily close could open the door to a sharper decline toward $2.24, roughly aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high of $5.35 down to the yearly low of $1.71.
Adding to the concern, momentum indicators are mixed but generally skew negative.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the oversold region at 33.64 and has shown a bullish divergence that some traders view as a possible reversal signal.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bearish territory and has yet to show a clear sign of bullish momentum returning.
SUI derivatives market reflects bearish sentiment
Data from Coinglass highlight a significant drop in open interest (OI) for SUI, which currently sits near $1.15 billion — the lowest in almost two months.
This represents a 43% decline from the $2.05 billion peak recorded in May, indicating clear capital outflows from the derivatives market.
The drop in OI has been accompanied by a decline in the OI-weighted funding rate, currently around 0.0060%, further pointing to waning bullish enthusiasm.
Additionally, taker buy/sell volume shows that short positions now dominate, accounting for 55% of volume versus 45% for longs.
These figures highlight a decisive shift in trader sentiment, with the long/short ratio at about 0.8195 reflecting an overall bearish bias.
Unless sentiment improves, pressure on the spot price is likely to continue.
Head-and-shoulders pattern targets roughly $2.20
Technical analysts have pointed out the emergence of a head-and-shoulders pattern on SUI’s daily chart, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
According to market analyst NebraskanGooner, this classic reversal setup could push SUI down toward the $2.20 area by early July.
The breakdown from the right shoulder coincides with a rejection at the 99-day simple moving average, underlining a failure to sustain key technical levels.
$SUI (per request)
Rejected key resistance and now back below 99smma
Also looks like a head and shoulders breakdown which yields a measured target in the $2.20’s area. https://t.co/URt8sTIvo5 pic.twitter.com/vIC72brZ7O
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) June 17, 2025
The $3.00–$3.10 area, which previously served as support, now acts as a significant resistance barrier.
If bulls fail to reclaim this zone in the next sessions, the bearish pattern may continue to exert downward pressure on price action in the short term.
Fading on-chain activity raises more doubts
On-chain metrics also paint a bleak picture for SUI’s near-term outlook.
Daily transaction volume on the network has plunged from over 19 million to roughly 9 million, while daily active accounts have fallen from 1.66 million to about 320,000, according to data from SuiVision.
This sharp decline in network activity reflects waning interest and suggests the prior rally may have been driven more by speculation than sustained demand.
The loss of momentum in both price and network usage underscores the challenges SUI may face mounting a quick recovery.
Although there has been a modest rebound in futures exposure, with open interest hovering near $1.2 billion, the broader outlook remains cautious.
Market participants appear to be waiting for clearer signals before committing to fresh positions.
What to watch next
All eyes are now on the $2.78 support level. A successful bounce from this area could open the path back toward the psychological $3 level and potentially toward the monthly high near $3.55.
However, a breakdown followed by a failed retest could pave the way for a drop to $2.20 or lower.
Looking further out, some analysts project longer-term price ranges that imply room for growth, but short-term prospects remain clouded by technical weakness and shrinking on-chain activity.
For now, until bulls reclaim major resistance and network fundamentals stabilize, SUI’s near-term outlook is likely to stay fragile.
Traders should closely monitor technical support zones and broader market sentiment before making confident moves.