The past few weeks have been brutal for the cryptocurrency market, and Solana (SOL) has been among the hardest hit.
While some analysts anticipate further downside in the near term, several technical indicators hint that a meaningful recovery could be approaching.
Buy Now?
Earlier this month, SOL plunged to about $60, its lowest level since late 2023. At the time of writing, SOL trades near $63 (CoinGecko), marking roughly a 33% decline over the past month, and its market capitalization has dropped to well under $40 billion.
That low may represent an attractive entry point for some investors. Analyst Ali Martinez reported that the TD Sequential indicator produced a buy signal on SOL, suggesting the price could move higher toward $77.
Solana’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart also points to extreme oversold conditions. The RSI recently fell to around 15—the lowest reading on record for SOL. The RSI runs from 0 to 100; readings below 30 typically indicate an asset is oversold and may be poised for a rebound, while readings above 70 warn of an overbought condition and potential pullback.
Market commentator Henry (X user LordOfAlts) echoed the bullish outlook, noting that despite SOL’s recent drop it appears “absolutely bullish” and could form a W-shaped recovery that pushes past $88 if the bulls reclaim $79.90. He cautioned, however, that a breakdown below the critical $60 support would be damaging.
More Pain Ahead?
Despite bullish signals, bearish market pressure remains a real risk, and some traders expect deeper losses before any sustained recovery. X user cyclop projected a short-term slide back toward the $30–$40 range, prices last seen in October 2023. Still, that analyst remains bullish over the longer term, forecasting a potential rise to $300 within one to two years.
Recent flows from self-custody wallets to centralized exchanges have heightened concerns about increased selling pressure. When large amounts of SOL move to exchanges, the risk of rapid liquidation rises, which could drive prices lower.
Institutional interest also appears to be softening. Over recent days, outflows from spot SOL ETFs have outpaced inflows, signaling that pension funds, hedge funds, and other institutional players are trimming exposure. That trend forces issuers of these products—such as Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, Invesco, and others—to sell actual SOL to back their shares, placing additional downward pressure on the market.
In summary, SOL currently shows technical signs of being deeply oversold, which could set the stage for a rebound. At the same time, persistent bearish market conditions, exchange inflows, and ETF outflows create real risks for further declines. Traders and investors should weigh both the recovery signals and the downside risks before making decisions.