- Solana’s 40% rally from $95.23 faces a threat from a shooting star candlestick.
- Technicals show a bullish MACD but fragile momentum, with $125–$128 acting as key support.
- Macro pressure and competition challenge SOL’s ability to sustain momentum toward $147.60.
Solana’s price climbed roughly 40% from a one-year low of $95.26 recorded on Binance last week, reaching $131.32 on April 15, 2025. Much of this gain occurred over the past week, sparking hopes that Solana (SOL) might be recovering after a three-month downtrend.
What is driving the current Solana price rise?
A major factor behind Solana’s recent advance is the anticipated launch of Canada’s first spot Solana ETFs that include staking features. These ETFs, approved by the Ontario Securities Commission, will allow investors to earn staking rewards, which increases demand for SOL. Strong NFT activity on Solana and growing Web3 integrations are also supporting price action. Finally, ongoing venture-capital investment in Solana-based projects reinforces the token’s long-term appeal despite market volatility.
Solana price technical analysis
Following the recent surge, Solana broke out of a three-month falling wedge. However, a shooting star candlestick formed on the daily chart yesterday, signaling a potential problem for the rally. 
This bearish pattern, appearing after SOL reached $134.19, suggests rejection and a possible pullback. The 50-day EMA near $136 now acts as short-term dynamic resistance; a decisive break above it could set the stage for a stronger bullish run.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $124.28 provides immediate support and helps keep the medium-term trend constructive. The RSI at 54.12 indicates mild bullishness but lacks the momentum typically needed to confirm a sustained breakout.
Solana price outlook
Solana’s ability to sustain bullish momentum faces several headwinds. Macro pressures — including geopolitical uncertainty and speculation about US Federal Reserve policy — weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Competition from newer layer-1 blockchains such as Sui and Aptos also poses a challenge to Solana’s market share. Additionally, past network congestion issues, though less frequent, remain a consideration for investors.
Relative strength comparisons show some improvement: the SOL/ETH price ratio recently rose to about 8.1%, highlighting Solana’s outperformance versus Ethereum in the short term. However, that edge may not persist if broader market conditions change or if Ethereum’s performance rebounds.
Technically, indicators paint a mixed short-term picture. A bullish MACD crossover — the faster line crossing above the signal line — points to growing buyer pressure, and expanding green histogram bars support this short-term buying bias. Yet the appearance of the shooting star near the $134.19 resistance raises the risk of fatigue.
A break below near-term support in the $125–$128 band, tested multiple times recently, could push SOL toward the psychological $100 level, representing a roughly 50% retracement from the 2023 rally. Conversely, if buyers defend the $125 area and macro sentiment turns more favorable, upside pressure toward $147.60 resistance becomes plausible. Absent a decisive bullish catalyst, however, a period of consolidation between $125 and $145 appears likely.