- Solana (SOL) traded around $122 on December 24, 2025.
- Fresh losses pushed SOL close to the critical $120 level.
- Falling investor confidence and macroeconomic headwinds mean this higher-risk altcoin could decline further.
Solana extended its slide in the final weeks of 2025, slipping below $130 and probing the $120 area.
On Wednesday, the price fell to these lows across major exchanges, and additional downside could see SOL test the recent low near $116.
The $120 zone has acted as temporary support throughout the year.
But given this drop aligns with a wider shift in the crypto market amid reduced liquidity and profit-taking, SOL appears poised for more weakness.
Over the past year, Solana has underperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with SOL down about 38% versus declines of roughly 11% for BTC and 16% for ETH.
Solana price outlook: is $100 next?
Technical analysis shows Solana at a critical inflection point.
Charts reveal growing evidence of a bearish breakdown that could push prices toward $100 or lower in the near term.
A primary concern is SOL’s position relative to the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently estimated around $160–$165 based on recent data.
Trading well below that level signals a loss of short-term momentum and reinforces the downtrend, as the 50-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance in recent months.
Momentum indicators add further weight to the downside case.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been hovering in the low-to-mid 30s on daily and weekly timeframes, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling a definitive reversal.
In technical terms, this leaves room for further weakness before exhaustion sets in.
Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative, with the MACD line below its signal line, confirming weak upside momentum and ongoing selling pressure.
Chart patterns reinforce the warning signs.
Solana is testing a weekly neckline support near $120. A decisive break below that level could accelerate the decline toward deeper support in the $100–$90 area.
What could lift Solana?
Despite these challenges, Solana’s ecosystem fundamentals remain solid.
The network processed billions of transactions in 2025, sustaining its reputation for high throughput and low fees.
Institutional developments, such as the launch of a US spot SOL ETF and integrations with traditional financial platforms, have provided some counterbalance.
The spot Solana ETF recorded inflows on December 23, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum saw outflows.
While volumes were moderate compared with earlier in the month, cumulative net inflows have risen to more than $754 million — a bullish factor for SOL.
However, if institutional interest wanes again, short-term technicals remain aligned with the broader downtrend.
Traders and investors should monitor key support at $120 and the behavior around the 50-day EMA, along with liquidity conditions and institutional flows, which will influence whether Solana finds footing or moves toward lower support levels.