XRP is trading at $1.37 as May moves into its final week, having given back the gains from what briefly appeared to be the most promising technical setup of the corrective cycle. The breakout above the 100-day moving average on the USDT chart failed to hold, and a lower high formed on the BTC pair. Levels that acted as support last week are now the targets bulls must reclaim just to return to previous positions.
Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair
On the daily timeframe, the USDT pair presented a compelling setup last week. XRP was testing the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel while trading above the 100-day moving average near $1.45, and the RSI was climbing toward 65.
That move, however, turned into a textbook rejection. XRP did not close a single candle above the channel, and the ensuing sell-off pushed the price back to $1.37. The 100-day moving average, once viewed as dynamic support, is now nearby overhead resistance at about $1.40, positioned just below the channel ceiling.
The RSI has dropped from the mid-60s back into the 40s, erasing the momentum that had made the setup appear constructive. The $1.20 demand zone below should now be monitored as a potential floor, while a recovery above $1.45 and a sustained close over the 100-day MA are the minimum requirements to re-establish a bullish case. Given the broader altcoin market weakness, the path of least resistance currently points toward another test of support rather than a renewed attempt at resistance.
The BTC Pair
The brief breakout above 1,800 sats on the BTC pair last week has proven to be a fakeout. XRP/BTC has retreated to roughly 1,770 sats, forming a lower high near 1,800–1,900 sats. The RSI, which had recovered from extreme lows around 25 to above 50 while showing bullish divergence, has faded back toward the 40s. The relief bounce is losing momentum before producing anything structurally significant.
The failed reclaim of 1,800 sats is the key development for this pair. It indicates the oversold bounce was corrective rather than structural and that the broader downtrend in the ratio remains intact. The 100-day moving average near 1,900 sats and the 200-day moving average around 2,100 sats continue to decline well above the current price, offering little near-term reference for a recovery.
To the downside, the lower channel boundary near 1,550 sats and the horizontal support band around 1,500 sats are the next targets if the current level breaks. With altcoin sentiment worsening across the market, there is little in the near-term macro picture to suggest selling pressure will ease soon.