Ripple’s cross-border token slipped over the past few days, dropping to its lowest level since the start of the month. Despite the recent weakness, several indicators and on-chain developments point to a possible rebound, and many analysts remain optimistic that a bullish move could be imminent.
No Need to Panic?
The past 24 hours were challenging for the broader cryptocurrency market, with many major digital assets posting notable losses amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric toward Iran, warning that the “clock is ticking” and urging swift action. His social posts and imagery heightened market uncertainty and contributed to risk-off sentiment across crypto markets.
XRP was not spared on May 18, falling to roughly $1.38 according to CoinGecko, representing about a 5% decline for the week and returning the token to levels last seen nearly three weeks earlier. Still, the pullback has not erased bullish sentiment among a number of on-chain analysts and traders, who point to technical setups and broader market flows as reasons for optimism.
One trader using the handle CoinForge described XRP’s setup as “insane” and highlighted a key technical level that previously preceded a dramatic rally. CoinForge noted that the MACD recently completed a deep golden cross, a signal that often foreshadows expanding momentum, and suggested a potential target just below $5—an approximate 240% rise from current levels.
“The MACD has just done a deep golden cross, and it is primed for an expansion. The target is just south of $5, and that would be a 240% jump,” the trader wrote.
Other prominent voices in the community have issued even more bullish forecasts. Trader Javon Marks argued that XRP remains “holding broken out” versus Bitcoin and could significantly outperform, envisioning upside approaching 800% under a scenario similar to past breakouts.
“This fulfilling, which a breakout similar to this one has done before, can result in XRP being priced above $10,” their analysis reads.
Celal Kucuker also suggested the token is poised for a sizable breakout, estimating that XRP’s valuation could climb materially higher from current levels.
Further Insight
Institutional demand has been an important supporting factor. Spot XRP ETFs have seen meaningful inflows recently, strengthening the bullish narrative. Data from SoSoValue indicates that the last day dominated by outflows was April 30, and the most recent week represented the strongest inflow performance since December. Since their launch, these spot ETF products have accumulated nearly $1.4 billion in net inflows, a sign of sustained institutional interest that can help support price discovery and reduce volatility in the long run.
Another supportive signal comes from exchange custody metrics. The amount of XRP held on Binance has declined to a monthly low of about 2.75 million coins, according to CryptoQuant. A lower exchange balance can indicate that holders are moving assets into self-custody or long-term storage, which tends to reduce immediate sell pressure and can be interpreted as a bullish supply-side development.
In summary, while short-term price action has been negative amid geopolitical uncertainty and broader market weakness, several technical signals, steady ETF inflows, and declining exchange balances for XRP point to reduced selling pressure and a setup that some analysts believe could precede a significant rebound. As always, traders should consider risk management and the possibility of continued volatility when evaluating positions.