Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, says the crypto market appears to have “found its bottom” and that fresh upside momentum is likely.
Pal shared his view during an interview with Layah Heilpurn, as Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market look to rebound following several days of losses.
Bitcoin fell to near $39,000 earlier this week but has recovered some ground and is trading around $41,200. The BTC-USD pair is up roughly 4% over the past 24 hours, while total crypto market capitalization has risen about 3%.
Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have each gained more than 3% in the past day. Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC) and Avalanche (AVAX) are among the strongest performers so far today.
Crypto didn’t make a new low
Pal noted that the crypto market has faced a string of negative macro developments over recent months, yet it has not fallen below the last major low reached in 2021. That resilience, he argues, suggests the market may already have found a bottom, though no one can predict markets with absolute certainty.
“The balance of probabilities is that we made the low last year, we retested the low this year and I think the low is in,” he said.
He outlined how a variety of potential downward triggers have failed to produce a new low, calling that combination of shocks a test the market passed. “I think we’ve thrown a war, 8.5% inflation, the Fed raising interest rates all at crypto, we’ve thrown the Chinese ban, we’ve thrown so much at it and [yet it] didn’t make a new low. Usually, that’s a signal the market has found its bottom,” Pal told Heilpurn.
A slowing economy could trigger fresh upward action
Looking at possible catalysts for higher crypto prices, Pal places a slowdown in economic growth near the top. In his view, weaker growth would shift investor focus away from inflation concerns and toward growth fears, which typically favors assets that perform well in low-growth environments.
When that shift occurs, long-duration assets often gain, and Pal includes crypto among those assets that can benefit from a slowing economy. In equities, he pointed to Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund as an example of this dynamic.
Pal also addressed the idea of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, suggesting that while cycles may still play a role, their impact is likely diminished compared with the early days of the market. As adoption increases and market size grows, the extreme volatility that once defined those cycles is likely to moderate, making any future cyclical effects smaller in scale.
Overall, Pal’s view emphasizes crypto’s resilience through multiple macro shocks and the potential for renewed upward momentum if economic conditions shift toward slower growth, which historically benefits long-duration and speculative assets.