- Portugal bans political betting under its 2015 online gambling law.
- Polymarket remains accessible for now, but regulators could ask internet providers to block it.
- Polymarket faces restrictions in 30+ countries, with access limits varying by jurisdiction.
The Portuguese gambling regulator has ordered the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease its operations in Portugal within 48 hours after a sharp surge in activity linked to the country’s presidential election on Sunday.
According to Rádio Renascença, bets placed on the January 18 vote exceeded €103 million (about $120 million).
The regulator, Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), said Polymarket does not hold a license to offer betting services in Portugal and therefore operates illegally.
The enforcement action highlights the growing friction between prediction markets and national gambling laws, particularly when political events drive a rapid inflow of users and large amounts of capital.
A fast-growing prediction market meets strict local gambling rules
Polymarket is a prediction market that lets users buy shares tied to possible outcomes of real-world events, including politics, sports and other developments.
In Portugal, betting on political events and other real-world outcomes is prohibited.
Under the country’s 2015 online gambling law, betting is limited to sports, casino games and horse racing.
SRIJ stated that Polymarket is not authorized to provide betting services in Portugal and cannot legally operate political markets, whether those markets concern national events or international developments.
The regulator’s 48-hour deadline and what may follow
The regulator’s decision followed the surge in election-related wagering, with activity around the Portuguese presidential race drawing heightened scrutiny.
SRIJ formally ordered Polymarket to exit the market within 48 hours.
For the moment the platform remains accessible in Portugal, but authorities could soon instruct internet service providers to block access.
Other prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless also appear reachable from Portugal, although regulators are specifically focused on Polymarket’s license status and its political betting markets.
Election-related volumes draw fresh scrutiny
The size of the bets tied to the January 18 vote has highlighted how quickly liquidity can concentrate in political markets.
Rádio Renascença reported that stakes surpassed €103 million (around $120 million), emphasizing the scale of Polymarket activity connected to Portugal’s presidential election.
Such volumes can attract regulatory attention more swiftly than smaller niche markets, especially in jurisdictions where political betting is expressly restricted.
Polymarket faces bans in more than 30 countries
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has already faced restrictions in over 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy and, more recently, Ukraine.
Regulatory approaches differ by jurisdiction: some countries, like Belgium, have blacklisted the site entirely.
Others, including France, impose limited access so local users can view the platform in “read‑only” mode without being able to place bets.
Portugal’s enforcement action adds to this growing list and illustrates how legal pressure on prediction markets can escalate quickly when platforms attract significant traction around elections.