- Portugal bans political betting under its 2015 online gambling law.
- Polymarket remains accessible for now, but regulators may ask ISPs to block it.
- Polymarket faces restrictions in 30+ countries, with access limits that vary by market.
The Portuguese gambling regulator has ordered blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country within 48 hours after the platform saw a sharp spike in activity tied to Sunday’s presidential election.
According to Rádio Renascença, wagers placed on the January 18 vote surpassed €103 million (about $120 million).
The regulator, Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), said Polymarket does not hold a license to offer betting services in Portugal and is therefore operating illegally.
This enforcement action highlights how prediction markets are increasingly colliding with national gambling laws, especially when political events trigger rapid surges in user activity and large capital flows.
Rapidly growing prediction market meets strict local gambling rules
Polymarket is a prediction market that lets users buy and sell shares tied to potential outcomes of real-world events, such as political races, sports, or other developments.
In Portugal, betting on political events and other real-world outcomes is prohibited.
Under the 2015 online gambling law, wagers are allowed only on sports, casino games, and horse racing.
The SRIJ stated that Polymarket is not authorized to provide betting services in Portugal and cannot legally operate political markets, whether for domestic events or international developments.
The regulator’s 48-hour deadline and what may follow
The regulator’s order was prompted by the surge in election-related bets, with activity around the Portuguese presidential race drawing heightened scrutiny.
SRIJ formally instructed Polymarket to leave the country within 48 hours.
For now the platform remains accessible, but regulators may instruct internet service providers to block access soon.
Other prediction platforms such as Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless currently appear to be reachable in Portugal, while authorities focus specifically on Polymarket’s licensing status and its political betting markets.
Election volume draws renewed scrutiny
The scale of wagers connected to the January 18 vote underscored how quickly liquidity can concentrate on political markets.
Rádio Renascença reported that bets exceeded €103 million (about $120 million), highlighting the magnitude of Polymarket activity tied to the Portuguese presidential election.
Large volumes like these can attract regulator attention faster than smaller niche markets, particularly in jurisdictions where political betting is explicitly restricted.
Polymarket faces bans in more than 30 countries
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has already encountered restrictions in more than 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and more recently Ukraine.
Regulatory approaches differ by jurisdiction. Some countries, such as Belgium, have blacklisted the site entirely.
Others, including France, limit access so local users can view markets in a read-only mode rather than participate actively.
Portugal’s enforcement action joins this growing list and shows how legal pressure on prediction markets can escalate quickly when platforms gain traction around elections.