- French trader “Théo” earned nearly $50 million by betting on Trump using a “neighbor polling” approach on the Polymarket platform
- Théo’s use of private polling and unusual data has raised concerns about transparency
- French regulator ANJ is investigating Polymarket’s compliance with local gambling laws
Crypto prediction market Polymarket now faces potential legal scrutiny in France after an anonymous trader known as “Théo” or the “Trump Whale” reportedly made almost $50 million betting that Donald Trump would win the U.S. popular vote. Théo’s remarkable gains have prompted questions about prediction market mechanics, the reliability of information used to trade, and platform transparency.
Théo’s strategy produced roughly $50 million in election bets
Théo, a former bank trader from France, used four anonymous Polymarket accounts to place wagers totaling more than $30 million that Trump would win the popular vote. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he described a technique he calls “neighbor polling.” Rather than asking respondents directly who they will vote for, this method asks people whom they believe their neighbors support. The approach can reveal concealed preferences, particularly when respondents are reluctant to disclose their true choice in a direct poll.
Public neighbor-polling results released in September, which Théo cited, showed a notable drop in support for Vice President Kamala Harris when respondents described their neighbors’ preferences instead of answering directly. He interpreted that shift as evidence that conventional polls were underestimating Trump’s support. At the time Polymarket odds indicated only a 40% chance that Trump would win the popular vote, so Théo placed high-risk wagers against the market consensus.
To increase his confidence, Théo commissioned a major polling firm to run a private survey. According to reporting, those private results were “striking” and favored Trump, but the findings were kept confidential under a non-disclosure agreement. That secrecy fueled speculation about the accuracy of the private data and the extent to which it influenced market prices on Polymarket.
French regulator ANJ probes Polymarket
Théo’s success has drawn increased attention to Polymarket’s role in election betting. French authorities, particularly the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), are examining whether the platform complies with local gambling rules. Although Polymarket operates from the United States and restricts participation to non-U.S. users following an agreement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, the ease with which virtual private networks (VPNs) can bypass geographic limits complicates enforcement.
Experts disagree on the effectiveness of neighbor polling. Some research suggests the method can outperform traditional direct polls in revealing hidden preferences, while other studies warn it risks producing misleading predictions if the public lacks sufficient context or understanding. Théo’s case highlights how unconventional strategies and private insights can move prediction markets, but it also underscores the need for greater transparency and regulatory clarity as the prediction market landscape evolves.