- JPMorgan sets bitcoin’s estimated support price near $94,000, citing rising mining costs.
- Analysts say bitcoin could climb to $170,000 based on a gold-parity comparison adjusted for volatility.
- Bitcoin’s downside is seen as limited after rising network difficulty pushed up production costs.
JPMorgan analysts say the downside risk for bitcoin appears limited at current levels, pointing to higher production costs as a key technical floor for the cryptocurrency.
In a note published Wednesday, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a JPMorgan managing director, placed bitcoin’s estimated support price around $94,000, implying limited room for the asset to fall from its recent level near $102,300.
Rising production costs establish a new support level
JPMorgan estimates the cost to produce a single bitcoin—often treated as a “floor” price—has risen from about $92,000 to roughly $94,000.
The analysts said this increase is largely driven by a sharp rise in bitcoin’s network difficulty, which measures the computational effort required to mine new blocks.
As network difficulty increases, miners must deploy more energy and hardware resources to maintain output, raising the marginal cost of producing new coins.
The team noted that bitcoin’s price-to-production-cost ratio now sits just above 1.0, putting it near the lower end of its historical range.
“Empirically, bitcoin’s production cost has acted as a floor,” the analysts wrote, adding that “a production cost of $94,000 implies very limited downside from the current bitcoin price.”
Historically, production costs have correlated closely with bitcoin’s long-term valuation trends because mining profitability often affects both network participation and supply dynamics.
JPMorgan said the current alignment supports the view that downside risk is restricted unless broader market sentiment deteriorates further.
Bull case points to a $170,000 target
While downside appears limited, JPMorgan reiterated a 6- to 12-month upside projection to about $170,000 for bitcoin, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold.
The analysts explained that bitcoin currently attracts roughly 1.8 times more private capital per unit of risk than gold, implying its market capitalization could rise significantly to reach parity with private investment levels in gold.
At present, bitcoin’s market capitalization is near $2.1 trillion, while about $6.2 trillion is invested in gold via ETFs, bars and coins.
“On that basis,” the note states, “bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise by approximately 67%, which implies a theoretical price near $170,000.”
The analysts emphasized this valuation framework reflects long-term potential rather than a short-term prediction.
Market sentiment, regulatory developments and liquidity conditions will continue to influence how quickly bitcoin could approach those levels.
Market context and shifting sentiment
Last month, JPMorgan analysts published a similar assessment, calling bitcoin undervalued relative to gold and suggesting a possible year-end target near $165,000.
However, in a separate Block report, Panigirtzoglou noted that recent liquidations and negative market sentiment make such a rally unlikely in the short term.
Earlier in August, the same team projected a year-end target around $126,000; bitcoin briefly surpassed that level on October 6, reaching an intraday high above $126,200 before a major liquidation event on October 10.
Despite recent volatility, JPMorgan’s latest note presents cautiously optimistic prospects.
With strengthening network fundamentals and rising production costs, analysts view current prices as close to structural support levels, leaving room for long-term appreciation if market confidence returns.